The rally in U.S. equities and the improvement in risk appetite drove the U.S. dollar lower against all higher yielding currencies. Thanks to some extra efforts by the G20 and relaxation of mark to market accounting by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), investors have become more optimistic. However a big event risk lies ahead for the U.S. dollar and it remains to be seen whether the positive sentiment following the G20 and FASB can be sustained. The non-farm payrolls report is traditionally one of the most market moving pieces of data for the foreign exchange market and with the strong possibility of another sharp decline in jobs, it is too early to completely buy into the recovery story (How Could the Dollar React to Non-Farm Payrolls?).

A total of 651k jobs were cut by US corporations in the month of February. Since January 2008, more than 4.2 million Americans have lost their jobs. This represent a rebound from the previous month but only a very mild one after another 57k jobs cuts were tacked onto the January data. With the downward revision, January represented the single worst month for the labor market since 1945.

There is no question that the US labor market is very weak with job losses expected to extend for the 14th consecutive month. If February non-farm payrolls exceed -450k, then more than 4 million Americans would have lost their jobs since January 2008. The current forecasts for non-farm payrolls are far more pessimistic with analysts predicting a decline of 650k jobs. The US dollar has rallied as risk aversion drags down the higher yielding currency pairs, but if non-farm payrolls surprise to the upside and we that think it will, the dollar may give back some its spectacular gains.

In January, more than 598k Americans lost their jobs, which is the largest amount in 35 years. The unemployment rate also jumped to a fresh 16 year high of 7.6 percent.

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report should continue the persistent and debilitating losses that are the hallmark of a recession. We are destined to see the thirteenth month of mounting job losses that is prone to sever the US’ ability to pull out of the economic crisis and restore some level confidence and activity. However, this is not to say that there are no reasons to be modestly optimistic about the labor market report. In fact, currencies and equities are already pricing in the possibility of another 500k decline in non-farm payrolls. The bar has been set very low and in order to disappoint the markets, payrolls may need to fall by 600k.

We were one of the few analysts calling for a potential rebound in non-farm payrolls in the month of December (Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Could We See a Rebound) and that was exactly what we saw this morning. 524k jobs were lost in the US economy, which is modestly better than the -586k revised loss for November.

The US dollar is selling off aggressively ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report on the fear that for the second month in a row, job losses may have topped 500k. The recent moves in the currency and equity markets suggest that everyone expects a very weak labor market report. Although the consensus forecast is -520k, the whisper number is closer to -650k to -700k. Sentiment is strongly skewed in one direction which can be dangerous considering the fact that some of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls call for a rebound.

The US dollar is selling off aggressively ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report on the fear that for the second month in a row, job losses may have topped 500k. The recent moves in the currency and equity markets suggest that everyone expects a very weak labor market report. Although the consensus forecast is -520k, the whisper number is closer to -650k to -700k. Sentiment is strongly skewed in one direction which can be dangerous considering the fact that some of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls call for a rebound. The Non-farm payrolls report is the most market moving release for the currency market and it should live up to its volatility inducing reputation.