The U.S. dollar has ended the week lower against all higher yielding currencies as the actions by Washington and leaders of the 20 largest economies have helped to restore risk appetite. USD/JPY which tracks the market’s sentiment broke 100, to trade at the highest level since November. The fate of the dollar in the week ahead will be largely dependent upon whether we are at a turning point in the global recession or if investors have been misled by false expectations.

The rally in U.S. equities and the improvement in risk appetite drove the U.S. dollar lower against all higher yielding currencies. Thanks to some extra efforts by the G20 and relaxation of mark to market accounting by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), investors have become more optimistic. However a big event risk lies ahead for the U.S. dollar and it remains to be seen whether the positive sentiment following the G20 and FASB can be sustained. The non-farm payrolls report is traditionally one of the most market moving pieces of data for the foreign exchange market and with the strong possibility of another sharp decline in jobs, it is too early to completely buy into the recovery story (How Could the Dollar React to Non-Farm Payrolls?).

Cable has fallen a remarkable 400 points at the starts of this week’s trade hitting lows not seen since the end of January. What’s behind the sell off and is it likely to continue? Tonight’s drop in the pound was triggered by yet more bad news from the UK banking sector. Shares of Lloyds PLC tumbled 14 percent after UK’s biggest lender ceded corporate control to the government in return for state guarantees covering more than $367 Billion of assets.

Cable started the week with a 200 point drop as investor worries over the state of UK banking sector pressured the Footsie and sent the currency tumbling below the 1.4000 level for the second time this month. Shares of Llyods PLC tumbled 14 percent after UK’s biggest lender ceded corporate control to the government in return for state guarantees covering more than $367 Billion of assets. The news dragged the Footsie lower by more than 1% and pressured the pound into the early morning London trade.

The US dollar extended its gains against the Euro, British pound and Japanese Yen as the key players in the recovery story disappoints the market. Overall the price action in the currency market has been muted and the dollar lost ground against other major currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. US economic data was weak but the dollar rally continued as traders focused on external rate decisions. The central bank of Australia left rates unchanged while Canada cut theirs by 50bp; next up are the Eurozone and UK rate decisions, both of which are expected to lower interest rates.

The pound was decimated at the start of weekly trade today dropping more than 200 points off its highs as traders absorbed the details of new UK government rescue package of the banking sector.

Concerns about the US economy are growing as the Dow Jones Industrial Average erases all of its year to date gains, taking the US dollar down with it. The rally that we have seen in the first few days of trading will be difficult to sustain with all of the weak economic data that we expect in this month. Although the US government has thrown a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus at the US economy, we may not see the fruits of their labor until the second quarter at the earliest. There is a major risk of a sharp drop in this month’s non-farm payrolls, retail sales and fourth quarter GDP reports and only after we have seen the last of depression like numbers can we begin to see a meaningful recovery in the US dollar.