It has been an extremely interesting day in the currency market with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner tripping over his comments about the U.S. dollar and an auction of 5 year Treasury notes seeing surprising weak results. Geithner’s fumble could not come at a worst time as investors remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the Obama Administration’s efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy. Top that off with the failed Treasury auction and it is clear that the actions of everyone in the Obama Administration from the Treasury Secretary to the Federal Reserve Chairman have left an air of uncertainty across the financial markets. The U.S. dollar has weakened against the Euro and Japanese Yen but ended the day unchanged against the commodity currencies.

With US equity and bond markets closed for Presidents Day, trading was relatively quiet for currencies. The G7 meeting did not lead to any fireworks but the dollar did gap higher against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen at the Asian open on Sunday.

Over the next 24 hours, the crisis of confidence will be tested. A number of speeches and announcements are expected from the Obama Administration ranging from the President himself, the Treasury Secretary and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The big test tomorrow will be whether or not investors are satisfied with the government’s efforts. Is the rescue plan enough to turn around the US economy or will the critics crush any optimism? The US dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies suggesting that forex traders are holding out hope that Obama’s plan is well received but this same sentiment is not being shared by equity traders.

Another rambling night of trade in the currency market as the EUR/USD struggled with the 1.3000 handle after staging a reversal in North American session yesterday. Better risk appetite and the growing political woes of the Obama administration helped fuel Tuesday's rally, but the unit could not hold its gains as dour economic data and steady EURGBP sell flows kept the downward pressure.

The US dollar and the Japanese Yen, the two lowest yielding G10 currencies continue to be the two best performing. It is important to remember that the dollar and the Yen are not rallying because investors have grown more optimistic about those currencies but because they are more pessimistic about the outlook for the US and global economy. We have seen an unusual amount of currency related comments made by central banks and government officials around the world because of the sharp rally in the dollar and the Japanese Yen. As these currencies continue to rise, the risk of a reversal grows. Tim Geithner has been confirmed as the new US Treasury Secretary but rather than cheer his confirmation, analysts are worried about some of the comments he made at his confirmation hearing.

President Obama inherits a very troubled economy and he certainly has his work cut out for him over the next few years. However brighter times may lie ahead for US stocks based upon the performance of the Dow in the first 100 days on a President’s term.

Flight to safety continues to drive the US dollar higher against all of the major currencies outside of the Japanese Yen. US markets were closed today in observation of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day but that has not limited the volatility in the currency market. Europe dominates the headlines with big developments in the UK and Spain. Most Americans will be distracted by the Presidential Inauguration tomorrow, which leads us to comment on the possibility of an Obama Bounce on Tuesday.

Dollar rallied strongly on the opening day of the first full working week of the year as enthusiasm over President elect Obama stimulus package pushed the unit higher against the yen while the euro suffered a 300 point loss on worries over the burgeoning Italian bond scandal. According to the Independent in UK , Italian municipalities may face as much as $35 Billion in losses over a financing scheme gone wrong, sold to the them by major investment banks such as UBS and Deutsche Bank. The Italian authorities are considering the possibility of suing the principal market makers or misrepresenting the risks to the municipal investors in these complex over the counter deals.