US stock markets finished the day strongly. For most of today’s trading, markets expressed uncertainty about the latest flood of economic reports, most of which did not improve as much as anticipated. By the end of the day, the Fed was able to step in and console investors as to the current stage of stabilization in the US economy. The Fed’s Beige Book, a tabulation of conditions reported within each Federal Reserve District opened with the usual words of concern but then introduced the notion of stabilization. The markets took this news and decided to rally with it by more than 100 points. Currency markets reflected stern euro weakness in turn for broad based pound strength. The dollar was higher against the yen but lost more than 100 pips against the Canadian dollar.

There is a bearish Gartley pattern forming on the EUR/JPY.

For the second day in a row, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly against the Euro and is also trading higher against the New Zealand dollar and Swiss Franc. However, the extent of today’s rally in the greenback basically ends there. The dollar is practically unchanged against the British pound and Australian dollars and is trading lower against the Canadian dollar and Japanese Yen. The 2.3 percent sell-off in U.S. equities coupled with the outperformance of the two lowest yielding G7 currencies indicates that risk aversion is the dominant theme. Yet, with no major U.S. economic data or market moving news over the past 48 hours, traders may be wondering, what changed. As recently as last week, investors were optimistic about a turnaround in the global economy following the more substantial outcome from the G20 meeting.

Choppy waters leave little changed in terms of new pattern development...

Today’s trading comes across as mostly a denial of facts. Perhaps it is the jubilation that comes with the start of a New Year, or the low volume at the end of a holiday week, but today’s numbers certainly cast a concerning picture on an already weakened economy. Price action in the dollar is also equally perplexing, as the currency posts broad gains in today’s market. However, we warn that the facts in the marketplace will inevitably catch up with those who are once again convinced that the economy has hit the bottom.

With no US economic data on the calendar today, the dollar weakened against every major currency except for the British pound. Trading continues to be very thin with commodities being the only products that are really moving. The tensions in the Middle East have driven oil and gold prices higher. US stocks also gave back Friday’s gains and remained contained within its week long trading range.