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Another night of risk aversion has lifted the yen to a six week high against the euro and a four week high against the buck as WHO raised the alert status of the swine flu crisis from 3 to 4. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general for health security and environment noted that the increased threat level “signifies that we have taken a step closer to pandemic. It is also possible that as the situation evolves over the next few days we could move into Stage 5.”
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Japan’s retail sales fell for a seventh consecutive month in March as weakening labor market prompted households to cut spending in a clear sign that Japan’s economy is seeing no evidence of a rebound in consumer demand. Sales declined by 3.9% earlier which was actually a bit better than the market consensus of a 4.7% drop, but despite the slightly better than forecast numbers, today’s retails sales data confirms the fact the world’s second largest economy remains mired in the worst economic slump in the post war era. Yesterday, the Japanese government forecast that the economy will shrink by 3.3% in 2009.
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Japan’s wholesale prices fell at the fastest pace in almost seven years. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index slumped by -2.2% on a year over year basis as industrial output contracted by double digit rates. The Bank of Japan’s overseas commodity index, which tracks changes in the cost of oil, steel, copper and wheat, slid 49.3% in March.
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For the second day in a row, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly against the Euro and is also trading higher against the New Zealand dollar and Swiss Franc. However, the extent of today’s rally in the greenback basically ends there. The dollar is practically unchanged against the British pound and Australian dollars and is trading lower against the Canadian dollar and Japanese Yen. The 2.3 percent sell-off in U.S. equities coupled with the outperformance of the two lowest yielding G7 currencies indicates that risk aversion is the dominant theme. Yet, with no major U.S. economic data or market moving news over the past 48 hours, traders may be wondering, what changed. As recently as last week, investors were optimistic about a turnaround in the global economy following the more substantial outcome from the G20 meeting.
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Demand for risk continued unabated at the start of the week’s trade today with USD/JPY taking out the 101.00 figure in morning European session as Asian and European equity markets remained firmly in the green. Investors ignored the geo-political; threats from the North Korean rocket launch that fizzled into the Pacific focused instead on the growing theme of stabilization in the global economy.
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The Tankan survey showed that business sentiment amongst big manufacturers fell to a record low as economic conditions continued to deteriorate. The Large Manufacturers index declined to -58 from -24 the period prior and printing worse than the markets -55 forecast. The gloomy sentiment reflected the very tough operating conditions for Japanese corporations whose margins are squeezed both by massive collapse of global demand and by the persistent high valuation of the yen.
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European equity markets were broadly higher in early morning trade fueling risk appetite in currencies as all the majors with the exception of the yen rebounded against the buck after yesterday massive sell off. The Asian and early European trade was characterized by strong carry flows with yen crosses helping to lift the euro the Aussie and the pound.
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Over the past 24 hours, it has become increasingly clear that the bear market rally in currencies and equities is over. U.S. stocks plummeted close to 4 percent sending investors back into the safety of the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. Renewed concerns about the U.S. economy was the primary catalyst for the risk aversion but repatriation also added to the upside pressure in the two lowest yielding currencies. With 24 hours to go before the end of the quarter for most U.S. companies and the end of the fiscal year for the Japanese, repatriation has been particularly strong as companies bring money home to window dress their balance sheets. The U.S. dollar strengthened against every major currency except for the Japanese Yen.
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A slow meandering night of trade in the currency market with most of the majors quietly rangebound throughout Asian and early European trade. The economic data shed no new light with German IFO printing essentially in line with consensus expectations at 82.1 versus 82.2.
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High beta currencies enjoyed a rally for the second night in a row boosted by further gains in equities and continuation in risk appetite. Carry flows were once again the dominant theme in Asian trade with USD/JPY rising to 98.40 while many the yen crosses reached their highest levels since last October. The Nikkei followed through on the nearly 500 point gain in the Dow rising 272 points but the gains on the European markets were decidedly more modest with most indices barely above break even.
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Japan reported a Current Account deficit today as export demand and higher yen significantly reduced export earnings while global credit crisis lowered the value on overseas investments. Japan’s Current Account balance fell to deficit of -172.8 Billion yen from a surplus of 125.4 Billion yen a year ago.
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Since the beginning of the month, the US dollar has skyrocketed against the Japanese Yen. The strength of the currency pair has baffled nearly all forex traders. For the past 12 months, USD/JPY has traded in lockstep with US equities, but as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a 12 year low, USD/JPY has soared to a 3 month high. The correlation that once provided currency traders with a reliable explanation for day to day price action is only adding to the confusion. Risk aversion was the predominant theme in the financial markets this past week and yet USD/JPY, “the” barometer of risk is rising and not falling.
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All eyes have been on Washington today with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress and Treasury Secretary Geithner releasing details on the US’ capital assistance program. The financial markets have been waiting for the details from the Treasury since they first announced the Financial Stability Plan and now investors have reacted positively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned positive temporarily after having been down close to 200 points this morning. Interestingly enough, the recovery in US equities has failed to have a meaningful impact on the currency market. The US dollar strengthened across the board and has remained strong going into the close of the US trading session.
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The euro shrugged off another weak IFO report and rallied off the Asian session lows breaking above the 1.2800 barrier by early European trade. IFO survey of business sentiment printed yet another new low at 82.6 versus 83 forecast but market expectations were already dour and the data had minimal impact on the pair as EUR/USD continued to benefit from EUR/JPY flows.
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With US equity and bond markets closed for Presidents Day, trading was relatively quiet for currencies. The G7 meeting did not lead to any fireworks but the dollar did gap higher against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen at the Asian open on Sunday.
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There is a lot of talk this morning that the Bank of Japan is checking currency rates. The Japanese Yen has continued to rise over the past 24 hours and by checking rates, the central bank is keeping a very close eye on where the Yen is trading. Given that it is 11pm in Japan right now on a Friday, the central bank is either very serious about intervening in the currency market or they want to keep currency traders on their toes. The 87.00 level for USD/JPY could very well be their breaking point. The risk of intervention is limiting the decline in USD/JPY on a day when the sharp drop in Dow futures (-220) should be driving it much lower
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The USD/JPY is shaping up to be the trade of the Q1...
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Flight to safety continues to drive the US dollar higher against all of the major currencies outside of the Japanese Yen. US markets were closed today in observation of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day but that has not limited the volatility in the currency market. Europe dominates the headlines with big developments in the UK and Spain. Most Americans will be distracted by the Presidential Inauguration tomorrow, which leads us to comment on the possibility of an Obama Bounce on Tuesday.
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Trading in equities very closely mirrored yesterday’s volatile session. It is clear that investors are still uncertain, as direction in the Dow has been largely range-bound. Equities have swerved between two extremes, at one time positive by more than a hundred points. Even though the excitement and enthusiasm behind the newly proposed relief program has managed to give equities a new leg, we are still undeniable seeing the levels of concern that have pervaded the markets for most of last year. This level of fear was a big factor that led to the original implosion of the equities market. Trading in the dollar has been likewise mixed, with strength against the euro and yen, but weakness against the pound and commodity currencies.
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The resonance of the New Year is starting to show its true colors at the start of the first full trading-week this year. The Dow finished a volatile day lower, in some ways ruining the sense of stability that pervaded in last week’s market. Volatility in equity prices was complemented by some extreme moves in the fx markets. Looking at today’s biggest percentage movers we can see the sheer magnitude of price action today, with some moves extending to more than 3.0%. The dollar in particular was heavily mixed across the board. We have seen some substantial gains against the euro and yen, in conjunction with weakness against the pound and commodity currencies. Today’s trading was a truly unorganized and unpredictable force.
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Dollar rallied strongly on the opening day of the first full working week of the year as enthusiasm over President elect Obama stimulus package pushed the unit higher against the yen while the euro suffered a 300 point loss on worries over the burgeoning Italian bond scandal. According to the Independent in UK , Italian municipalities may face as much as $35 Billion in losses over a financing scheme gone wrong, sold to the them by major investment banks such as UBS and Deutsche Bank. The Italian authorities are considering the possibility of suing the principal market makers or misrepresenting the risks to the municipal investors in these complex over the counter deals.
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The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic reports. Thin trading conditions continue to dominate in the currency market, leading to inconsistent trading for the US dollar. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese Yen and British pound but weakened against the Euro. The latest reports on the US economy were weak but not as weak as the market had expected. There was the potential for really bad numbers and the fact that they did not materialize has actually helped the dollar.
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After seeing the US dollar sell off for 5 straight days against the Euro and Japanese Yen, we were not entirely surprised to see today’s recovery, especially on the heels of better than expected economic data. The market has become accustomed to disappointments so good news was a welcome change. The European Central Bank has also reduced the interest rate that it offers to banks that deposit with them in order to encourage lending. The 15 percent rally in the Euro has led many to people to believe that the ECB may reconsider their plan to hold interest rates steady in January and the deposit rate cut was seen as a step in that direction. Thin market conditions near the holidays have exacerbated the volatility in the currency market. However even though the greenback is higher today, we had both positive and negative news impacting the dollar.