Another night of risk aversion has lifted the yen to a six week high against the euro and a four week high against the buck as WHO raised the alert status of the swine flu crisis from 3 to 4. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general for health security and environment noted that the increased threat level “signifies that we have taken a step closer to pandemic. It is also possible that as the situation evolves over the next few days we could move into Stage 5.”

The lack of any meaningful U.S. economic data along with fear that the swine flu has the risk of turning into a global health crisis has caused investors to flock into the safety of the U.S. dollar. We have always said that when it comes to currencies, investors and traders always sell first and ask questions later.

The greenback faces broad selling today as risk tolerance improves along with equity rallies. The equity rallies were primarily fueled by the gradual uncovering of stress test details and upbeat earnings. The same story of components have been the major market driver for the entire week .Today however, we threw some new factors into the mix including some of the only relevant economic data to be released this week. Even though markets are still net losers since Monday, the voice of optimism is still clearly audible. The Dow today advanced by about 100 points. The dollar was stronger against the pound and yen, but lower against the euro, cad, aussie, and kiwi.

The euro received a lift from better than expected PMI Manufacturing and Services surveys both of which printed materially stronger than forecast. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 36.7 from 34.7 eyed while the Services survey jumped to 43.1 from 42.1 projected. As we noted earlier, “Today’ s upward surprise should take some pressure off the ECB in the near term. European monetary authorities have come under enormous amount of criticism for keeping credit conditions too tight at a time when the rest of the G4 has implemented a near Zero Interest Rate Policy. The uptick in the PMI data suggests that the EZ economy is responding to a pick-up in global demand despite relative lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

The dollar continued to strengthen against the high beta currencies throughout the Asian and early European trade today as risk aversion and mixed economic news continued to weigh on euro, pound and Aussie. With little economic data on the calendar the pro-dollar flows that have dominated trade since the start of the week continued, but EUR/USD managed to hold the 1.2900 figure despite several attempts over the past few days to take the pair lower.

The euro was pummeled in Asian and early European trade in the wake of comments by Jean Claude Trichet that indicated ECB may lower rates below the 1% limit suggested earlier in the week. In a speech in Tokyo President Trichet stated that, “Any ambiguity in our medium-term policy direction would delay the return of sustainable prosperity, because that would undermine confidence, which is the most precious ingredient in the present circumstances.”

Prices have entered previously established major support zone while recently completing multiple bullish patterns near 1.583...

The euro remained under pressure throughout Asian and early European trade dogged by risk aversion flows and mounting concerns over the lingering economic contraction in the 16 member union while the pound continued to rally approaching the key psychological figure of 1.5000. A story in UK Telegraph noted that fully one third of European junk bond credits could default on their debt as the export driven region sees no signs of pick up in demand.

The big story in the financial markets today was not the improvements in economic data, but the improvement in earnings. The health of the financial sector is critical to the recovery in the U.S. economy and therefore investors are keeping a particularly close eye on the reports from the banking sector. In order for the global economy to have any chance of recovering, banks need to stabilize and start turning a profit so they will feel comfortable enough to lend. Therefore the better than expected results from Wells Fargo has been received positively by the equity and currency markets. The U.S. dollar sold off against the commodity currencies and rallied against the Japanese Yen. The dollar also gained strength against the euro and British pound, which is not in line with the improvement in risk appetite because of euro and pound specific reasons that we will discuss further in the respective sections.

The EUR/AUD has been under strong selling pressure since mid-March dropping approx 1,400 pips recently testing ~1.85 support.

This week's rally of near 1,000 pips saw only a brief mid-week 38.2% correction (point C on 2hr chart below), which oftentimes signals a strongly trending market. In terms of geometric pattern recognition, this also suggests higher probability for an ABCD extension pattern to emerge.

The next 48 hours in the foreign exchange market should be very interesting as we look forward to three significant events that could trigger massive volatility in the currency market independently, let alone collectively. After some big moves earlier this week, most currency pairs have consolidated as traders wait for the European Central Bank interest rate decision, the G20 meeting and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Euro and Swiss Franc but lost value against all of the other major currencies. This consolidation should just be a precursor to a bigger move.

Tomorrow the ECB is expected to lower rates by 50bp bringing the overnight rate to 1%. Given the gloomy recent economic data t from the region, the rate cut seems almost pre-ordained. With EZ unemployment rising to a three year high of 8.5% while retail sales in Germany, the union’s largest economy, contracting by another -0.2%, the situation on the ground remains grim. Therefore the markets are pricing in a 100% possibility of a 50bp cut.

Over the past 24 hours, it has become increasingly clear that the bear market rally in currencies and equities is over. U.S. stocks plummeted close to 4 percent sending investors back into the safety of the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. Renewed concerns about the U.S. economy was the primary catalyst for the risk aversion but repatriation also added to the upside pressure in the two lowest yielding currencies. With 24 hours to go before the end of the quarter for most U.S. companies and the end of the fiscal year for the Japanese, repatriation has been particularly strong as companies bring money home to window dress their balance sheets. The U.S. dollar strengthened against every major currency except for the Japanese Yen.

Currencies spent the last working day of the week in generally listless trade until comments by German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck roiled the market sending EUR/USD sharply lower in early morning Frankfurt session. Mr. Steinbreuk noted that euro was at risk if the EU's Stability and Growth Pact isn't taken seriously.

Over the past few months, a rally in U.S. equities has generally been met with a sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The primary reason was because parking money into the low yielding U.S. dollar was synonymous with risk aversion. Therefore one would expect that today’s 2 percent rally in equities should have driven the U.S. dollar lower against all of the major currencies. We did see dollar weakness, but it was only against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The greenback increased in value against the Euro and British pound leading many traders to wonder why those currencies failed to participate in the rally.

Monday's anticipated EUR/CHF buy near 1.52 was triggered overnight and has recently knocked out initial profit target (T1)...

Solid technicals point to bullish butterfly pattern completion...

An intraday selling opportunity as EUR/JPY hits critical intraday resistance near 130.50 with risk to 131.16

On a very quiet night of trade with Japan markets closed for a holiday, EUR/USD held its ground, for most of the early European session pivoting around the 1.3700 level. However news of a weak EZ Industrial Production report triggered a slew of stops and the pair tumbled to 1.3550 within a matter of minutes by midday European trade.

An update to this morning's GBP/USD and EUR/USD trades....

The euro and pound rose on the first trading day of the week as risk appetite returned to the currency market after US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner promised to release details of a new plan to use a private and public partnership funds to remove toxic assets off the balance sheets of US banks. Both Asian and European equities rose providing a strong bid tone to the risk currencies. Cable rallied through the 1.4100 handle and euro approached the psychologically key 1.3000 level by midday European trade.

Volatility has ripped through the foreign exchange market as the U.S. dollar gave back its earlier gains. Safe haven flows drove the dollar higher at the beginning of the U.S. trading session, but the currency lost value when equities took off. The big story in the foreign exchange today was the Swiss National Bank’s controversial and nuclear decision to intervene in the currency market, raising fears of a global FX war. By coming into the foreign exchange market to sell Swiss Francs, the central bank has driven the Euro and U.S. dollar sharply higher. The gains in these currencies were exacerbated by the rally in U.S. equities and a stronger retail sales report. The rally in the foreign exchange market today indicates that risk appetite has improved.

EUR/USD rallied today in Asian and early European trade on short covering as failure to break the psychologically key 1.2500 level over the past several days prompted a buying spree despite the fact that economic data from the region continued to paint a bleak picture. On the economic front German trade balance printed at 8.3 Billion euro surplus - less than the 10.0 Billion number that the market was expecting - while French data showed a deficit of -4.5 Billion against forecasts of -3.0 Billion.

The two biggest event risks for currency traders over the next 24 hours are the Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions.

It has been a rough day in the financial markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 falling to the lowest level in 12 years.

The euro shrugged off another weak IFO report and rallied off the Asian session lows breaking above the 1.2800 barrier by early European trade. IFO survey of business sentiment printed yet another new low at 82.6 versus 83 forecast but market expectations were already dour and the data had minimal impact on the pair as EUR/USD continued to benefit from EUR/JPY flows.

Dollar steadily lost ground during the Asian and early European sessions today as bargain hunting and short covering helped drive both the euro and pound higher. After coming close, but failing to take out the psychologically important 1.2500 level yesterday, EUR/USD catapulted higher on a buy recommendation by US investment bank that cited excessive bearishness in the EZ and the Eastern European economies.

Despite much worse than expected GDP data EUR/USD held its ground near the 1.2900 level for most of Asian and early European trade today as risk appetite returned to the FX market. The return of risk sparked a strong rally in cable and Aussie all night long and sent USD/JPY flying towards the 9200 handle.

It is a dollar story in the foreign exchange market today as the greenback rises against every major currency. Although earlier risk aversion contributed to the strength of the US dollar, the underperformance of the Japanese Yen suggests that revenge of the low yielders is not the theme in the currency market. Since we are still waiting on the economic stimulus package, the market has shifted its focus away from politics and back onto economics. The comments about sovereign debt ratings by ratings agency Moody have spooked currency traders.

The Asian equity markets reacted negatively to the news that the US stimulus package was ready for passage as traders grew increasingly skeptical about the bills efficacy to help revive the US economy. Most Asian equity bourses were lower by more than -2% and the European markets followed suit with declines of more than -1% in early London and Frankfurt trade.

Euro and pound were generally range bound in early European trade as the currency market awaited rate decisions from both the BoE and the ECB due 12:00 and 12:45 GMT respectively. With economic calendar essentially barren trading was likely to remain choppy as EUR/USD tried to hold on to the 1.2800 level while cable consolidated around 1.4400.

Over the next 24 hours, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will be making interest rate announcements. The Bank of England is the only central bank expected to cut interest rates, but that does not mean that the Euro stay stationary. In fact, we expect some big action in both currencies, which could lead to more volatility for EUR/GBP.

There are 3 interest rate decisions on the calendar this week from Australia, the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. Only 2 out of the 3 countries are expected to cut interest rates but all 3 rate decisions and the corresponding comments from central bank officials should trigger some volatility in the currency market. Although the amount of easing is important, what will receive more attention are the comments on how much further these central banks could cut interest rates. The upcoming rate cut is not expected to be the last for the Reserve Bank of Australia or the Bank of England and the expectation of further rate cuts could prevent a major recovery in the Australian dollar and British pound.

The US dollar is stronger across the board today as risk aversion returns to the market. Like Florida weather, where it can be hot one day and cold the next but warm most of the time, we can occasionally see an improvement in the market’s risk appetite but the bias is still towards risk aversion. Traders have quickly realized that nothing new came out of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting yesterday and until we have another major announcement from the US government, currencies will be vulnerable to negative US economic data, earnings report and developments abroad.

The EUR/USD continued its post FOMC tumble all night long in Asian and early European trade as the worst German unemployment data in four years and dovish comments by ECB chief Jean Claude Trichet pressed the pair ever closer to the 1.3000 level. German unemployment rose a shocking 56K against expectations of a 30K, nearly threefold greater than the month prior figure of 18K.

Although the Federal Reserve did not change interest rates this afternoon, the FOMC announcement led to a significant amount of volatility in the currency market. In our FOMC Instant Insight, we talked about how the dollar rallied because the Fed said that they “may” and not “will” start buying US Treasuries. The market was looking for something more radical such as inflation targeting or a bold announcement that they will immediately start buying long term Treasuries in size, which would have been dollar bearish. In the grand scheme of things, the Federal Reserve delivered nothing new today. So with that in mind, what should we expect now that the FOMC meeting is behind us?

The KOF index of Leading indicators printed at -0.87 versus expectations of -0.53 and far lower than -0.39 the month prior as the Swiss economy continued to deteriorate feeling the squeeze from both the slumping manufacturing exports and the reeling finance sector that saw many of the country’s leading banks suffer record losses in the past year.

The EUR/USD rallied through the 1.3300 level in early European session on the back of better that expected IFO results, but couldn’t hold that level for long as profit taking pushed equities lower and curbed some of the risk appetite that dominated overnight trade. The IFO survey of business climate surprised to the upside printing at 83 versus 81 forecast while the current assessment component also beat expectations coming in at 86.8 versus 85 projected.

For the first time since August 2007, the Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates. With the fed funds rate now set to a target range of 0 to 0.25 percent, the Federal Reserve has maxed out on their most conventional monetary policy tool. Although they still have different ways of adding liquidity to the financial system and stimulating the economy, what was once the second most market moving event risk for the foreign exchange market could become a non-event. Going forward, traders may have the same disregard for FOMC rate decisions as they do for Bank of Japan meetings. The only way for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision to hurt the dollar would be if the central bank announces that they will be purchasing long term US Treasuries in size or if they add more ingredients to their alphabet soup of new programs. There is nothing to support the dollar on the upside as the Fed is not expected to start talking about raising interest rates.

The IFO survey of business climate surprised to the upside printing at 83 versus 81 forecast while the current assessment component also beat expectations coming in at 86.8 versus 85 projected. Although the current assessment reading was actually worse than the month prior, reflecting the deteriorating conditions in the manufacturing sector, the overall IFO report suggested that at least for the time being sentiment amongst European business leader appears to have stabilized.

With most of Asian and Australia out on holiday, the liquidity starved conditions in the currency markets created some exaggerated movements in both euro and pound on the first trading day of the week, as both units fell hard at the start of Asia trade only to stabilize and recover on better risk appetite as the night progressed.

French consumer spending collapsed in December contracting by -0.9% versus -0.2% expected as sentiment sunk to its worst level since 1972. Despite the Christmas shopping season consumers in Europe's second largest economy kept their purse strings tightly shut as worries over the looming global recession dampened any urge to spend.

It is not often that we can see the US dollar hit a 23 year high against one currency and a 13 year low against another on the very same day. However that was exactly what happened this morning when the greenback surged against the British pound and collapsed against the Japanese Yen. Volatility ripped through the foreign exchange market as central bank and other US officials comment on their economies and currencies. The milestones were not limited to the GBP/USD and USD/JPY as the NZD/USD and EUR/JPY also fell to a 6 year low intraday. However what was most impressive is the fact that none of the staggering losses were sustained.

Flight to safety continues to drive the US dollar higher against all of the major currencies outside of the Japanese Yen. US markets were closed today in observation of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day but that has not limited the volatility in the currency market. Europe dominates the headlines with big developments in the UK and Spain. Most Americans will be distracted by the Presidential Inauguration tomorrow, which leads us to comment on the possibility of an Obama Bounce on Tuesday.

To have your credit rating downgraded means higher costs of borrowing. The Euro is slipping as we are seeing an exodus out of Spanish bonds because some global funds are mandated to invest only in AAA debt.

Standard and Poors lowered the sovereign bond rating on the Kingdom of Spain from its highest level of AAA to AA+. S&P noted that “Current economic and financial market conditions have highlighted structural weaknesses in the Spanish economy that are inconsistent with a AAA rating.”

The euro rebounded in Asian and early European trade tonight after yesterday’s ECB’s decision to lower rates by 50bp to 2.00%. The pair reached its lowest level in a month yesterday when it hit a low of 1.3024 after Jean Claude Trichet admitted that the economic situation in the Eurozone was deteriorating rapidly and suggested that more cuts would be coming.

The EUR/USD traded on either side of 1.3200 level for most on the night in chopppy Asian and European trade as currency markets awaited the ECB interest rate decision due later today at 12:45 GMT. In a true testament to the confusion of the marketplace the estimates for ECB policy move vary from the low end of 25bp to a high of 75bp.

Tomorrow’s ECB rate announcement due 12:00GMT is shaping up to be one of the key events in the central bank’s ten year history. With Euro-zone economy facing one of the worst economic slowdowns in decades Mr. Trichet and the governing council are under enormous pressure to abandon his ”Bundesbanke-like” rhetoric and begin to ease aggressively.

The EUR/USD continued its descent today in early European trade coming within 20 points of the 1.3200 figure as worries over the credit downgrade of Spain and a series of EUR/JPY sales weighed on the pair for a second day in a row. The Nikkei closed down nearly 5% after Japanese investors returned from their Monday holiday and this latest wave of risk aversion kept the pressure on the euro while propping the dollar and the yen.

The US dollar is selling off aggressively ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report on the fear that for the second month in a row, job losses may have topped 500k. The recent moves in the currency and equity markets suggest that everyone expects a very weak labor market report. Although the consensus forecast is -520k, the whisper number is closer to -650k to -700k. Sentiment is strongly skewed in one direction which can be dangerous considering the fact that some of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls call for a rebound.

The euro staged a strong rebound in early European trade this morning rising all the way above the 1.3600 handle, but news of greater than expected job losses in Germany halted the advance at that level for the time being. The rally in the pair started in Asia as bargain hunters reemerged near the 1.3500 figure attracted to the relative value in the pair after three straight days of selling. The push higher caught the shorts by surprise and EUR/USD quickly ran through the 1.3600 barrier after triggering a slew of stops.

The euro hit a three week low against the dollar in active trade today as the unwind of the EURGBP long positions weighed on the currency throughout early European trade. In a session essentially empty of any key economic data trading was dominated by technical factors as cross selling and continued dollar strength took the EURUSD below 1.3500 figure.

Dollar rallied strongly on the opening day of the first full working week of the year as enthusiasm over President elect Obama stimulus package pushed the unit higher against the yen while the euro suffered a 300 point loss on worries over the burgeoning Italian bond scandal. According to the Independent in UK , Italian municipalities may face as much as $35 Billion in losses over a financing scheme gone wrong, sold to the them by major investment banks such as UBS and Deutsche Bank. The Italian authorities are considering the possibility of suing the principal market makers or misrepresenting the risks to the municipal investors in these complex over the counter deals.

The US dollar sold off modestly today on stronger European economic data and weaker US data. The dollar’s weakness was seen against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar which followed oil prices lower. Trading remains extremely quiet in the foreign exchange market and any moves that we have seen thus far are still nominal. The only currency pair that is really moving is the EUR/USD, but thin liquidity could be exacerbating the pair’s trading ranges.

With Japanese markets closed for Emperors birthday, currencies spent the night in quiet pre-holiday trade essentially marking time until dealing desks close tomorrow evening for the Christmas holiday. The euro made another run at the 1.4000 level boosted by better than expected French consumer spending and Current Account data, but the rally fizzled into the early European session as traders continued to square up their books.

Evidence of oncoming holidays was all around the currency market tonight, as trading slowed to a crawl and the economic calendar was essentially barren of any significant data. Nevertheless, the euro managed to stage a rebound rally pushing above 1.4000 once again as better risk appetite in Asian markets and the oversold conditions in the unit created a perfect set up for a short covering bounce.

As we approach the holidays the currency market has taken on all the characteristics of Florida weather – just wait a minute and it changes. After completing a spectacular parabolic rise yesterday, the unit reversed course and produced an almost as impressive a fall in today’s early European trade. The pair went into a nose dive dropping more than 200 points in 20 minutes as it hit a low of 1.4040 before bouncing above 1.4100.

After seeing the US dollar sell off for 5 straight days against the Euro and Japanese Yen, we were not entirely surprised to see today’s recovery, especially on the heels of better than expected economic data. The market has become accustomed to disappointments so good news was a welcome change. The European Central Bank has also reduced the interest rate that it offers to banks that deposit with them in order to encourage lending. The 15 percent rally in the Euro has led many to people to believe that the ECB may reconsider their plan to hold interest rates steady in January and the deposit rate cut was seen as a step in that direction. Thin market conditions near the holidays have exacerbated the volatility in the currency market. However even though the greenback is higher today, we had both positive and negative news impacting the dollar.

With dollar denominated assets yielding next to nothing, we have continued to see money flow out of the US dollar. The greenback fell to the lowest level against the Euro since September and dropped to a new 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. The losses have been even more staggering since the beginning of the month. The dollar has fallen 14 percent against the Euro and 8 percent against the Japanese Yen. This significant sell off begs the question How Much Further Can the Dollar Fall? If you watched the price action in the currency market this past year, you will know that trends dominate. With only 2 weeks until the end of the year, we could be stepping into a longer phase of dollar weakness.