On Tuesday, we said that being long dollars equals being long pessimism, but what is more relevant to recent price action is that being short dollars equals being long optimism. The U.S. dollar has sold off across the board following the Federal Reserve’s decision to buy U.S. Treasuries. Although the act of buying U.S. Treasuries is in of itself dollar bearish, the sell-off in the greenback also reflects the market’s confidence in the Fed’s actions. Given the trend of the U.S. economy, buying Treasuries was inevitable but rather than wait a few more months, the Federal Reserve decided to deliver the stimulus now and in turn give the U.S. economy its best chance at recovery.

Euro, pound and Aussies were all higher at the start of European trade boosted by improved sentiment towards risk as equity markets across the region rallied by more than 1.5% starting the third day of the week on a somewhat brighter note. Part of the reason for today’s optimism has to do with reports that President Obama’s stimulus plan has a provision to establish a “bad bank” that would acquire up to $1 Trillion worth of toxic US assets.

The US dollar fell to a 2 month low against the Euro following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 75bp to 0.25 percent. The greenback is now the lowest yielding G10 currency and for that reason, we should see foreign selling of US dollars exacerbate. At 0.25 percent or more specifically, a target range of zero to 0.25bp, foreigners may not find the yield attractive enough to warrant the risk. Despite the selling that we have already seen in the dollar today, this could just be the beginning of a longer phase of dollar weakness that may last into the first quarter of 2009.