For readers of the Daily Currency Focus, it should be no surprise that the dollar has continued to weaken. On Wednesday, we said that the actions by the Federal Reserve have cemented the downtrend in the U.S. dollar. Given how currency traders have responded to previous Quantitative Easing threats and announcements, the EUR/USD could realistically hit 1.40 (see charts). Although equities have given back its gains and bond yields have rallied, the moves in the currency and commodity markets indicate that the Fed’s actions will have a lasting impact on the financial markets. As we look forward to more dollar weakness, it is worthwhile to consider how a weaker dollar impacts the global economy.

The euro rally continued in early European trade today after the IFO survey of business confidence handily beat expectations printing at 83.7 vs. consensus calls of 82.1. The IFO release was the third positive economic surprise from the EZ this week, following on the heels of better ZEW and PMI data numbers. As a result the EUR/USD has rallied more than 300 points off the week’s lows as short covering continue unabated.

Prices have entered previously established major support zone while recently completing multiple bullish patterns near 1.583...

After a brief pop in Asia EUR/USD selling continued in early European trade with the unit pressured by the release of yet another disappointing Industrial Production report which showed a drop of -2.3% versus -2.5% forecast. Although the data beat estimates slightly it nevertheless confirms the notion that the manufacturing sector is contracting sharply and will likely drag the EZ GDP lower as the year progresses.

Demand for risk continued unabated at the start of the week’s trade today with USD/JPY taking out the 101.00 figure in morning European session as Asian and European equity markets remained firmly in the green. Investors ignored the geo-political; threats from the North Korean rocket launch that fizzled into the Pacific focused instead on the growing theme of stabilization in the global economy.

Buoyant equity markets reignited risk appetite in currencies tonight as both Asia and Europe extended the gains made yesterday in DJIA on the back of better than expected ISM Manufacturing numbers. The iSM report showed a small measure of improvement across most of its components fueling a rally in stocks on the belief that US demand may have finally stabilized.

Over the past 24 hours, it has become increasingly clear that the bear market rally in currencies and equities is over. U.S. stocks plummeted close to 4 percent sending investors back into the safety of the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. Renewed concerns about the U.S. economy was the primary catalyst for the risk aversion but repatriation also added to the upside pressure in the two lowest yielding currencies. With 24 hours to go before the end of the quarter for most U.S. companies and the end of the fiscal year for the Japanese, repatriation has been particularly strong as companies bring money home to window dress their balance sheets. The U.S. dollar strengthened against every major currency except for the Japanese Yen.

Yen’s 200+ point rally against the greenback tonight suggests that currency markets may be in for rough ride this week as risk aversion hits stocks and high beta currencies come under renewed selling pressure. News that the Obama administration is entertaining the possibility of a GM bankruptcy and has asked Rick Wagoner to step down from his post as chairman, sent Asian markets tumbling on fresh concerns over the possible economic fallout from such a move.

The U.S. dollar capped the week off with a strong rally that may have set the tone for trading in the coming week. Despite a number of interesting political developments since Monday, the price action of most major currency pairs have been consolidative – up until now. Many factors have contributed to the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar, but for currency traders, their primary question is whether the rally can be sustained in the new and extremely busy trading week. Before even talking about the event risks, it is first important to remember that next week represents the end of the first quarter for many U.S. corporations and the end of the fiscal year for many Japanese companies. Therefore we may have a lot of action in the currency market that is related more to repatriation than economic fundamentals.

Compared to yesterday’s sharp moves in the currency and equity markets, trading has been relatively quiet. U.S. stocks meandered in and out of negative territory while the U.S. dollar traded higher against nearly all of the major currencies. Profit taking has hit the financial markets dragging equities and currencies lower. This consolidation gives investors the time to think about whether Monday’s rally is the beginning of a new bull market or just a strong bear market rally. Since March 6th, the S&P 500 has increased 23 percent, which is marginally less than some of the rebounds that we saw during the Great Depression. The point is that equities could still extend its gains while remaining in an overall downtrend.

The U.S. dollar initially traded higher after the Treasury released details for the Public-Private Investment Program aimed at taking bad debts off bank balance sheets. Their actions help to create a floor under the toxic assets, reassuring global investors. However early gains in the U.S. dollar was overshadowed by the massive rally in the U.S. equity market. The 6.8 percent rise in the Dow or close to 500 point move reflected stronger risk appetite and growing demand for higher yielding currencies such as the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars at the expense of the greenback. If the Dow hits 8000, we could see a new 2 month high in the EUR/USD above 1.38.

1.262 proves to be key support on the heels of bullish pattern completion...

Euro spend most of the Asian session consolidating and correcting some of its massive gains from yesterday, but jumped higher to take out the 1.2950 level as European trading began. On a night when the economic calendar was essentially barren risk appetite flows dominated trade as the pair oscillated around the 1.2900 handle.

Volatility has ripped through the foreign exchange market as the U.S. dollar gave back its earlier gains. Safe haven flows drove the dollar higher at the beginning of the U.S. trading session, but the currency lost value when equities took off. The big story in the foreign exchange today was the Swiss National Bank’s controversial and nuclear decision to intervene in the currency market, raising fears of a global FX war. By coming into the foreign exchange market to sell Swiss Francs, the central bank has driven the Euro and U.S. dollar sharply higher. The gains in these currencies were exacerbated by the rally in U.S. equities and a stronger retail sales report. The rally in the foreign exchange market today indicates that risk appetite has improved.

With U.S. equities rising more than 5.5 percent today, one would expect the improvement in risk appetite to drive the U.S. dollar lower against all of the major currencies. Unfortunately we did not see a broad based sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The greenback only weakened against the Euro and commodity currencies because investors continued to bail out of British pounds and Swiss Francs. It is also interesting that the EUR/USD is well off its highs indicating that the market’s appetite for dollars has not waned dramatically. The catalysts for today’s rally are not convincing and the moves in the currency market are fizzling, which suggests that we have witnessed nothing more than a bear market rally.

Currencies and equities have strengthened across the board suggesting that risk appetite may be improving. The dollar, which has been a refuge for safe haven flows, fell against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen. In fact, the rally in USD/JPY has been voracious with the currency pair rising 2.5 percent to an 11 week high. The move today has been driven by a variety of factors, none of which in our opinion are meaningful enough to sustain the rally.

Gold prices hit an intraday high of $999.50 an ounce, just a few cents shy of $1000.

A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the EUR/JPY 4hr Chart.

A break above 1.1750, and the USD/CHF intraday rally is expected to continue...

Euro, pound and Aussies were all higher at the start of European trade boosted by improved sentiment towards risk as equity markets across the region rallied by more than 1.5% starting the third day of the week on a somewhat brighter note. Part of the reason for today’s optimism has to do with reports that President Obama’s stimulus plan has a provision to establish a “bad bank” that would acquire up to $1 Trillion worth of toxic US assets.

Major resistance near 2.2730 may provide an ideal selling opportunity...

The IFO survey of business climate surprised to the upside printing at 83 versus 81 forecast while the current assessment component also beat expectations coming in at 86.8 versus 85 projected. Although the current assessment reading was actually worse than the month prior, reflecting the deteriorating conditions in the manufacturing sector, the overall IFO report suggested that at least for the time being sentiment amongst European business leader appears to have stabilized.

Gold spiked to within two dollars of $900/oz in holiday leaden Asian trading as saber rattling between US and Chinese officials regarding the manipulation of the yuan ratcheted the tension in global capital markets. Last week Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner stated that China was a currency manipulator sending shock waves through the financial markets as the Obama administration appears to have taken a much more confrontational stance with Chinese authorities than its predecessor.

The USD/JPY is shaping up to be the trade of the Q1...

Tomorrow’s ECB rate announcement due 12:00GMT is shaping up to be one of the key events in the central bank’s ten year history. With Euro-zone economy facing one of the worst economic slowdowns in decades Mr. Trichet and the governing council are under enormous pressure to abandon his ”Bundesbanke-like” rhetoric and begin to ease aggressively.

The US dollar fell to a 2 month low against the Euro following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 75bp to 0.25 percent. The greenback is now the lowest yielding G10 currency and for that reason, we should see foreign selling of US dollars exacerbate. At 0.25 percent or more specifically, a target range of zero to 0.25bp, foreigners may not find the yield attractive enough to warrant the risk. Despite the selling that we have already seen in the dollar today, this could just be the beginning of a longer phase of dollar weakness that may last into the first quarter of 2009.

After several straight days of triple digit gains both EUR/USD and GBP/USD stalled in early European session as traders locked in profits ahead of the FOMC decision scheduled for 17:15 GMT later today. In relatively quiet night of trade the euro fell back from the 1.3700 level hitting a low of 1.3628 as data from the EZ showed continued weakness in both service and manufacturing gauges. Cable dropped even harder to 1.5210 after reaching a high of 1.5477 yesterday despite hotter than expected CPI numbers.