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The next 48 hours in the foreign exchange market should be very interesting as we look forward to three significant events that could trigger massive volatility in the currency market independently, let alone collectively. After some big moves earlier this week, most currency pairs have consolidated as traders wait for the European Central Bank interest rate decision, the G20 meeting and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Euro and Swiss Franc but lost value against all of the other major currencies. This consolidation should just be a precursor to a bigger move.
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Tomorrow the ECB is expected to lower rates by 50bp bringing the overnight rate to 1%. Given the gloomy recent economic data t from the region, the rate cut seems almost pre-ordained. With EZ unemployment rising to a three year high of 8.5% while retail sales in Germany, the union’s largest economy, contracting by another -0.2%, the situation on the ground remains grim. Therefore the markets are pricing in a 100% possibility of a 50bp cut.
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German and French PMI readings improved for the first time in months suggesting that that vicious contraction in demand that dogged the region over the past year may be showing nascent signs of stabilization. German Manufacturing PMI printed at 32.2 vs. 31.9 eyed while the Service PMI rose slightly to 41.7 from 41 forecast. The French data was better with services rebounding to 42.9 from 40.2 expected and manufacturing registering a reading of 36.3 versus 35 called. The EZ Composite PMI number also rose to 40.1 from 39.2 the period prior.
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A bank report that we read this week had an interesting line summarizing investors’ attitude towards the U.S. dollar over the past few months. They said that being long dollars means being long pessimism and we believe that this is a valid description of the recent price action in the currency markets. Today, the dollar weakened against every major currency except for the Japanese Yen. This weakness as baffling as it may seem is more of reflection of the market’s optimism than pessimism because equities are higher and gold prices are lower.
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The minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting suggested that further rate cuts may be coming. Although RBA board noted that “monetary and fiscal stimulus that had been applied to the economy was having an expansionary effect,” the Australian monetary officials noted that the economic benefits from the massive rate cuts “remained unclear”.
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The Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision has been released one day early. Apparently this was mistake on behalf of the SNB, who faxed the rate decision before the official announcement.
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Markets are once again entrenched in a fear induced environment. Global equity markets are spiraling downward on continued disruptions in the stability of the global financial system. The promise of stability is nowhere to be found, as situations are only worsening despite continued governmental efforts. The concerns over the financial sector in particular have added to investors fears. Between the British nationalization of Lloyds Banking Group and AIG’s proposal for another bail-out, the survivability of financial companies is in question. Currencies have reacted with a determination on dollar strength. As the yen continues to lose its status as safe haven, the availability of a risk-free environment is almost completely limited to the United States. The dollar advanced against the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar.
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As we have promised, trading currencies have become more interesting following the interest rate decisions in Europe. The next 24 hours should prove to be just as exciting for forex traders with the February non-farm payrolls report due for release. The US dollar has rallied significantly ahead of the payrolls report, which is traditionally the single most market moving economic data for the EUR/USD. The cohesive rally in the US dollar and the price of gold along with the sell-off in US equities indicate that risk aversion is the main theme of the day. This also provides a clue on how the dollar could trade following Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (February Non-Farm Payrolls Preview).
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As expected ECB cut rates by 50 basis point taking the overnight rate below the 2% barrier for the first time since the euro began. With Eurozone economy contracting by -1.5% in the latest quarter and unemployment skyrocketing across the region, the generally hawkish central bank had no choice but to ease monetary policy further.
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In a move that surprised no one Bank of England cuts rates by another 50bp to 0.5%. Additionally, in a first detailed communication to the market as to how it intends to pursue quantitative easing to help stimulate the moribund UK economy, the central bank announced that it will purchase up 75 Billion GBP of securities by using its own reserves.
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Euro was lower in early European trade today dropping below the 1.2600 level ahead of the ECB rate announcement with market participants anticipating a 50bp cut in overnight rates to 1.5%. Traders were also eager to listen to Mr. Trichet’s post announcement press conference for any clues to future policy moves. In the past week a variety of ECB officials have hinted that the central bank may change its focus away from interest rate policy and towards quantitative easing.
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The US dollar extended its gains against the Euro, British pound and Japanese Yen as the key players in the recovery story disappoints the market. Overall the price action in the currency market has been muted and the dollar lost ground against other major currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. US economic data was weak but the dollar rally continued as traders focused on external rate decisions. The central bank of Australia left rates unchanged while Canada cut theirs by 50bp; next up are the Eurozone and UK rate decisions, both of which are expected to lower interest rates.
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The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting revealed that the Bank of England voted unanimously to support quantitative easing as authorities attempt to employ every policy tool at their disposal to stimulate the moribund UK economy. The MPC also voted 8-1 to lower rates by 50bp with David Blanchflower once again reaffirming his dovish stance by opting for a 100bp cut.
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On a night when the rest of the G10 currencies consolidated their losses in listless, event free trading, cable was the main source of action dropping 200 points from its highs on news that Bank of England voted unanimously for quantitative easing. The BOE voted 9-0 to expand its monetary policy initiatives beyond rate cutting and 8-1 to lower rates by 50bp with Blachflower once again calling for 100bp cut.
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Bank of England dropped the benchmark UK interest rate to 1.5% easing by 50bp as expected. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that the sharp drop in the pound provided additional stimulus to the UK economy tempering the need for more drastic rate cuts at the present time. The Central Bank acknowledged the severity of the UK recession stating that business and consumer confidence have declines markedly while noting that output is likely to drop sharply in the first half of 2009.
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It has been an extremely volatile week in the currency market. On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3364 and shortly after the European open on Thursday it hit a high above 1.47. However since then it has reversed violently to end the week back at 1.39. This type of price action is characteristic of an illiquid market that is uncertain about how to react to the drastic measures taken by central banks around the world. There was no US economic data released today, but there are reports that the White House has given $17B in loans to the Big 3 automakers. The US dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen. Next week is a lightened trading week with the Christmas holiday. US economic data is therefore jammed into Tuesday and Wednesday. We expect the final figures for third quarter GDP, housing market numbers, personal income, personal spending and durable goods next week. The data should continue to reflect the weakness of the US economy.
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Tuesday’s FOMC meeting will be remembered for decades to come as the Federal Reserve brings interest rates down to the lowest level this generation has ever seen. With 2 realistic options on the table and economist and traders divided on how much the Fed will cut interest rates, the only certain outcome is significant volatility for the currency market. The US dollar is selling off aggressively going into the rate decision as traders realize that after tomorrow, the dollar will either be the lowest or second lowest yielding G10 currency. No matter how you look at it, an interest rate of 0.50 percent is just as bad as an interest rate of 0.25 percent.
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With dollar denominated assets yielding next to nothing, we have continued to see money flow out of the US dollar. The greenback fell to the lowest level against the Euro since September and dropped to a new 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. The losses have been even more staggering since the beginning of the month. The dollar has fallen 14 percent against the Euro and 8 percent against the Japanese Yen. This significant sell off begs the question How Much Further Can the Dollar Fall? If you watched the price action in the currency market this past year, you will know that trends dominate. With only 2 weeks until the end of the year, we could be stepping into a longer phase of dollar weakness.