-
As expected the Bank of England kept rates on hold at 50bp but also voted to continue with its GBP 75bn "Quantitative Easing" Asset Purchase Program, noting that "since its previous meeting a total of just over GBP 26bn of asset purchases had been made and that it would take a further two months to complete that programme".
-
Markets today are exhibiting the usual signs of uncertainty in light of a new month that has not exactly gotten off to the best start. Among currencies, the Euro, Pound, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar all showed weakness against the dollar. USD/JPY on the other hand clearly exhibited dollar strength, as a surge to 101.00 is currently under way. The one currency that has managed to buck the trend has been the New Zealand dollar which only narrowly is holding on to gains. Nevertheless, the main driving force is the drop on the Dow today. However, as a sign of resilience in even a down market, the Dow rebounded off of exaggerated losses that extended down by nearly 150 pips to close down 41.74.
-
You can never underestimate the hawkishness of the ECB. This morning, the central bank cut interest rates by 25bp to 1.25 percent, driving the EUR/USD sharply higher following the smaller than expected move. Here are 3 reasons why the ECB cut by 25bp instead of 50:
-
German and French PMI readings improved for the first time in months suggesting that that vicious contraction in demand that dogged the region over the past year may be showing nascent signs of stabilization. German Manufacturing PMI printed at 32.2 vs. 31.9 eyed while the Service PMI rose slightly to 41.7 from 41 forecast. The French data was better with services rebounding to 42.9 from 40.2 expected and manufacturing registering a reading of 36.3 versus 35 called. The EZ Composite PMI number also rose to 40.1 from 39.2 the period prior.
-
The Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision has been released one day early. Apparently this was mistake on behalf of the SNB, who faxed the rate decision before the official announcement.
-
As we have promised, trading currencies have become more interesting following the interest rate decisions in Europe. The next 24 hours should prove to be just as exciting for forex traders with the February non-farm payrolls report due for release. The US dollar has rallied significantly ahead of the payrolls report, which is traditionally the single most market moving economic data for the EUR/USD. The cohesive rally in the US dollar and the price of gold along with the sell-off in US equities indicate that risk aversion is the main theme of the day. This also provides a clue on how the dollar could trade following Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (February Non-Farm Payrolls Preview).
Tags:
interest,
usd,
payrolls,
dollar,
easing,
nonfarm,
quantitative,
ecb,
bank,
eur,
nfp,
nfp february,
quantitative easing,
unemployment
-
As expected ECB cut rates by 50 basis point taking the overnight rate below the 2% barrier for the first time since the euro began. With Eurozone economy contracting by -1.5% in the latest quarter and unemployment skyrocketing across the region, the generally hawkish central bank had no choice but to ease monetary policy further.
-
In a move that surprised no one Bank of England cuts rates by another 50bp to 0.5%. Additionally, in a first detailed communication to the market as to how it intends to pursue quantitative easing to help stimulate the moribund UK economy, the central bank announced that it will purchase up 75 Billion GBP of securities by using its own reserves.
-
Euro was lower in early European trade today dropping below the 1.2600 level ahead of the ECB rate announcement with market participants anticipating a 50bp cut in overnight rates to 1.5%. Traders were also eager to listen to Mr. Trichet’s post announcement press conference for any clues to future policy moves. In the past week a variety of ECB officials have hinted that the central bank may change its focus away from interest rate policy and towards quantitative easing.
-
The US dollar extended its gains against the Euro, British pound and Japanese Yen as the key players in the recovery story disappoints the market. Overall the price action in the currency market has been muted and the dollar lost ground against other major currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. US economic data was weak but the dollar rally continued as traders focused on external rate decisions. The central bank of Australia left rates unchanged while Canada cut theirs by 50bp; next up are the Eurozone and UK rate decisions, both of which are expected to lower interest rates.
-
The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting revealed that the Bank of England voted unanimously to support quantitative easing as authorities attempt to employ every policy tool at their disposal to stimulate the moribund UK economy. The MPC also voted 8-1 to lower rates by 50bp with David Blanchflower once again reaffirming his dovish stance by opting for a 100bp cut.
-
On a night when the rest of the G10 currencies consolidated their losses in listless, event free trading, cable was the main source of action dropping 200 points from its highs on news that Bank of England voted unanimously for quantitative easing. The BOE voted 9-0 to expand its monetary policy initiatives beyond rate cutting and 8-1 to lower rates by 50bp with Blachflower once again calling for 100bp cut.
-
It has been an extremely volatile week in the currency market. On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3364 and shortly after the European open on Thursday it hit a high above 1.47. However since then it has reversed violently to end the week back at 1.39. This type of price action is characteristic of an illiquid market that is uncertain about how to react to the drastic measures taken by central banks around the world. There was no US economic data released today, but there are reports that the White House has given $17B in loans to the Big 3 automakers. The US dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen. Next week is a lightened trading week with the Christmas holiday. US economic data is therefore jammed into Tuesday and Wednesday. We expect the final figures for third quarter GDP, housing market numbers, personal income, personal spending and durable goods next week. The data should continue to reflect the weakness of the US economy.
-
Tuesday’s FOMC meeting will be remembered for decades to come as the Federal Reserve brings interest rates down to the lowest level this generation has ever seen. With 2 realistic options on the table and economist and traders divided on how much the Fed will cut interest rates, the only certain outcome is significant volatility for the currency market. The US dollar is selling off aggressively going into the rate decision as traders realize that after tomorrow, the dollar will either be the lowest or second lowest yielding G10 currency. No matter how you look at it, an interest rate of 0.50 percent is just as bad as an interest rate of 0.25 percent.