Japan’s wholesale prices fell at the fastest pace in almost seven years. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index slumped by -2.2% on a year over year basis as industrial output contracted by double digit rates. The Bank of Japan’s overseas commodity index, which tracks changes in the cost of oil, steel, copper and wheat, slid 49.3% in March.

The last full night of trade ahead of the Easter holiday for capital markets in Europe and North American was fairly quiet with both euro and pound contained to relatively narrow ranges while USD/JPY once again took out the 100 figure to the upside on the back of positive performance in the Nikkei. The jump in Japanese stocks was fueled by much better data on Japanese machinery orders and larger than expected stimulus package from Prime Minster Aso.

Japanese Eco Watcher survey printed much stronger than forecast at 28.4 versus consensus calls of 20.9 as the worst economic contraction in Japan since World War II appears to be bottoming out. This was the third consecutive month of better than expected results from the survey suggesting that consumer demand may be finally stabilizing albeit at extremely low levels.

The Tankan survey showed that business sentiment amongst big manufacturers fell to a record low as economic conditions continued to deteriorate. The Large Manufacturers index declined to -58 from -24 the period prior and printing worse than the markets -55 forecast. The gloomy sentiment reflected the very tough operating conditions for Japanese corporations whose margins are squeezed both by massive collapse of global demand and by the persistent high valuation of the yen.

Over the past 24 hours, it has become increasingly clear that the bear market rally in currencies and equities is over. U.S. stocks plummeted close to 4 percent sending investors back into the safety of the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. Renewed concerns about the U.S. economy was the primary catalyst for the risk aversion but repatriation also added to the upside pressure in the two lowest yielding currencies. With 24 hours to go before the end of the quarter for most U.S. companies and the end of the fiscal year for the Japanese, repatriation has been particularly strong as companies bring money home to window dress their balance sheets. The U.S. dollar strengthened against every major currency except for the Japanese Yen.

A slow meandering night of trade in the currency market with most of the majors quietly rangebound throughout Asian and early European trade. The economic data shed no new light with German IFO printing essentially in line with consensus expectations at 82.1 versus 82.2.

The U.S. dollar initially traded higher after the Treasury released details for the Public-Private Investment Program aimed at taking bad debts off bank balance sheets. Their actions help to create a floor under the toxic assets, reassuring global investors. However early gains in the U.S. dollar was overshadowed by the massive rally in the U.S. equity market. The 6.8 percent rise in the Dow or close to 500 point move reflected stronger risk appetite and growing demand for higher yielding currencies such as the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars at the expense of the greenback. If the Dow hits 8000, we could see a new 2 month high in the EUR/USD above 1.38.

Yen was the star performer in overnight trade gaining more than three big figures from yesterday on repatriation flows ahead of the Japanese fiscal year end. After trading as high as 99.12 just two days ago USD/JPY fell to a low of 95.67 in early European session on rumors of large bond redemptions that drove EUR/JPY lower by nearly 300 points and dragged EUR/USD down all night long.

Things will get very interesting in the currency market over the next 48 hours. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will be making interest rate decisions on Thursday and non-farm payrolls are due for release in the US on Friday. Alone, any one of these releases could trigger significant volatility in the currency market but together, they could easily lead to major breaks especially since the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been fluctuating within tight trading ranges. The US dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen. Risk appetite has improved thanks to a new stimulus package for China, more details on the Treasury’s $75B mortgage plan and a stronger than expected service sector ISM report. The Fed’s Beige Book report signaled worsening economic conditions across the nation, but that failed to cause a dent in the currency or equity markets.

Since the beginning of the month, the US dollar has skyrocketed against the Japanese Yen. The strength of the currency pair has baffled nearly all forex traders. For the past 12 months, USD/JPY has traded in lockstep with US equities, but as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a 12 year low, USD/JPY has soared to a 3 month high. The correlation that once provided currency traders with a reliable explanation for day to day price action is only adding to the confusion. Risk aversion was the predominant theme in the financial markets this past week and yet USD/JPY, “the” barometer of risk is rising and not falling.

The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic reports. Thin trading conditions continue to dominate in the currency market, leading to inconsistent trading for the US dollar. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese Yen and British pound but weakened against the Euro. The latest reports on the US economy were weak but not as weak as the market had expected. There was the potential for really bad numbers and the fact that they did not materialize has actually helped the dollar.