Better than expected US economic data was like a breath of fresh air for the currency markets today. Producer prices fell less than expected last month while manufacturing conditions in the Empire State and Philadelphia regions improved. The dollar rebounded against the Japanese Yen indicating that risk aversion is abating, albeit modestly. The overwhelmingly pessimistic investors will not be easily swayed by a few pieces of secondary economic data, especially since all of the numbers are still in negative territory. Looking ahead, we will have another busy day in the currency market with US consumer prices, the Treasury International Capital flow report, industrial production and consumer confidence due for release.

What to expect from a fundamental and technical basis for the US dollar, Euro, British pound, Japanese Yen and other major currencies in the year ahead.

Concerns about the US economy are growing as the Dow Jones Industrial Average erases all of its year to date gains, taking the US dollar down with it. The rally that we have seen in the first few days of trading will be difficult to sustain with all of the weak economic data that we expect in this month. Although the US government has thrown a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus at the US economy, we may not see the fruits of their labor until the second quarter at the earliest. There is a major risk of a sharp drop in this month’s non-farm payrolls, retail sales and fourth quarter GDP reports and only after we have seen the last of depression like numbers can we begin to see a meaningful recovery in the US dollar.

Dollar rallied strongly on the opening day of the first full working week of the year as enthusiasm over President elect Obama stimulus package pushed the unit higher against the yen while the euro suffered a 300 point loss on worries over the burgeoning Italian bond scandal. According to the Independent in UK , Italian municipalities may face as much as $35 Billion in losses over a financing scheme gone wrong, sold to the them by major investment banks such as UBS and Deutsche Bank. The Italian authorities are considering the possibility of suing the principal market makers or misrepresenting the risks to the municipal investors in these complex over the counter deals.

The US dollar sold off modestly today on stronger European economic data and weaker US data. The dollar’s weakness was seen against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar which followed oil prices lower. Trading remains extremely quiet in the foreign exchange market and any moves that we have seen thus far are still nominal. The only currency pair that is really moving is the EUR/USD, but thin liquidity could be exacerbating the pair’s trading ranges.

It has been an exceptionally active year in the foreign exchange market as currency volatilities hit record highs. In the first half of the year, everyone was worried about how much further the dollar would fall but in the second half of the year the concern became how much further the dollar would rise. More specifically, after hitting a record low against the Euro in the second quarter, the US dollar surged to a 2 year high against the currency in the beginning of the fourth quarter. From trough to peak, the dollar index rose more than 23 percent in 2008.

Thin market conditions continue to dominate in the currency market on the eve before Christmas. Trading ranges for all of the major currency pairs have been relatively narrow, especially when compared to the large swings that have been characteristic of the third and fourth quarters of 2008. There were both upside and downside surprises in this morning’s economic data but even the upside surprises were numbers that reflected a contraction in US economic activity. This has fueled the mild sell-off in the greenback that began at the European open.

The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic reports. Thin trading conditions continue to dominate in the currency market, leading to inconsistent trading for the US dollar. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese Yen and British pound but weakened against the Euro. The latest reports on the US economy were weak but not as weak as the market had expected. There was the potential for really bad numbers and the fact that they did not materialize has actually helped the dollar.

It is the first trading day of what is typically the least liquid period in the financial markets. As a result, there was no consistent trading pattern in the US dollar today. The greenback weakened against the Euro but gained strength against the British pound and Japanese Yen. We still believe that the US dollar has hit a top and could be at the cusp of a major reversal. The EUR/USD’s resilience to the US stock market sell-off indicates that we are finally seeing the weak outlook for the US economy reflected in the weakness of the US dollar. In 2009, the greenback may no longer be the market’s safe haven currency of choice as yields on Treasury bills sit at zero to negative levels.

After seeing the US dollar sell off for 5 straight days against the Euro and Japanese Yen, we were not entirely surprised to see today’s recovery, especially on the heels of better than expected economic data. The market has become accustomed to disappointments so good news was a welcome change. The European Central Bank has also reduced the interest rate that it offers to banks that deposit with them in order to encourage lending. The 15 percent rally in the Euro has led many to people to believe that the ECB may reconsider their plan to hold interest rates steady in January and the deposit rate cut was seen as a step in that direction. Thin market conditions near the holidays have exacerbated the volatility in the currency market. However even though the greenback is higher today, we had both positive and negative news impacting the dollar.