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The automaker bailout drama has exerted its toll on the financial markets. Last night, news that the bailout deal fell apart in the Senate drove the US dollar to a 13 year low against the Japanese Yen. Almost immediately, the dollar rebounded and its recovery accelerated after reports that the White House may provide assistance to the automakers by tapping the TARP funds. Stocks have rebounded from negative territory, but the unconvincing rally in both the currency and equity markets suggest that traders do not know what to make of the automaker bailout saga, which is sure to drag out into the New Year. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates on Tuesday, the US dollar could remain weak going into the rate decision.
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For readers of the Daily Currency Focus, it should be no surprise that the dollar has continued to weaken. On Wednesday, we said that the actions by the Federal Reserve have cemented the downtrend in the U.S. dollar. Given how currency traders have responded to previous Quantitative Easing threats and announcements, the EUR/USD could realistically hit 1.40 (see charts). Although equities have given back its gains and bond yields have rallied, the moves in the currency and commodity markets indicate that the Fed’s actions will have a lasting impact on the financial markets. As we look forward to more dollar weakness, it is worthwhile to consider how a weaker dollar impacts the global economy.
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Less than expected decline in the Durable Goods Orders along with higher than projected new home sales added to optimism of a possible bottom in the economic downturn. U.S. New Home Sales fell 0.6% in March from 358,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 356,000. Nonetheless, overabundance of unsold new homes and competition from foreclosed properties situated a 12% drop in the median sales price from a year earlier to $201,400.
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new home sales
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Cautious optimism is the perfect catch phrase for today’s events. Things are getting better but it is unclear whether or not this is just a break in the storm, or the very beginnings of stabilization. The Federal Reserve seems to believe that we are a long ways off, while recent economic data and earnings reports are pointing toward stabilization. The Dow spent much of the day trying to find the answer to this unanswerable question. In the end, the bulls were barely able to maintain control. The euro and pounds got hammered in today’s session, losing more than 150 and 120 pips respectively. Surprisingly, dollar strength was not enough to keep USD/JPY from sinking further. Commodity currencies were mixed on the day.
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US Retail Sales for March printed much worse than forecast at -1.1% versus expectations of 0.3% gain. Less autos the number also printed weaker at -0.9% versus 0.0% projected. The news was a blow to recovery bulls who had argued that US consumer demand was stabilizing as the US economy was in the process of carving out a bottom.
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Today’s markets have seen some of the most sustained inactivity in months. With US equity markets closed and new economic data at a minimum, the currency market decided to take a breath and allow time for this week’s developments to filter through. We are left with some time to further contemplate the notion of whether or not we are in the midsts of a bear market rally or a complete market reversal. The yen strengthens by less than 40 pips while the pound was virtually unchanged today. The euro advanced by about 60 pips, hardly making up for this week’s 400 pips in losses. Among commodity currencies, the big mover was USD/CAD, rising by about 20 pips.
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After posting a tiny rebound the month prior Eurozone Retail Sales turned negative in March posting their second monthly decline this year. EZ March Retail Sales contracted by -0.6% versus forecasts of -0.3% - their worst reading since December 2008 - as European consumers fearful of rising unemployment continued to curb their spending.
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Over the past few months, a rally in U.S. equities has generally been met with a sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The primary reason was because parking money into the low yielding U.S. dollar was synonymous with risk aversion. Therefore one would expect that today’s 2 percent rally in equities should have driven the U.S. dollar lower against all of the major currencies. We did see dollar weakness, but it was only against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The greenback increased in value against the Euro and British pound leading many traders to wonder why those currencies failed to participate in the rally.
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A new trend has emerged in the U.S. dollar this week courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s decision to start buying U.S. Treasuries. However judging from the price action across the financial markets, investors are not entirely convinced that the central bank’s actions will be enough to stabilize the U.S. economy. Stocks and gold prices have retreated after rallying on Wednesday while bond yields recovered. The U.S. dollar has also bounced but remains very weak. Given that the most significant consequences of the Fed’s action are higher bond prices (lower bond yields) and a weaker U.S. dollar, traders should not be distracted by the sell-off in U.S. equities. With no economic data or major announcements from the U.S. on Friday, profit taking has hit the currency market.
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Breakouts are beginning to occur across the foreign exchange market. After consolidating for the past few weeks, we have finally seen an upside breakout in the EUR/USD with the currency pair trading at the highest level since February 24th. USD/JPY has also fallen significantly and is at risk of breaking its March lows while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are attempting to break month long consolidations. The story today is dollar weakness. The greenback has weakened against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar. Other than the equity market’s feeble attempt to extend Tuesday’s gains, there was no major catalyst for the sell-off in the U.S. dollar.
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UK Retail Sales posted a gain of 0.7% versus forecast of 0.0% surprising the currency market which was geared for a much weaker result. December's data was also revised upward coming at very healthy 1.6% rate. The news confirms the sharp rise in BRC retail sales earlier in the month and suggests that UK economy may be more resilient than the market current dour consensus.
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It is a dollar story in the foreign exchange market today as the greenback rises against every major currency. Although earlier risk aversion contributed to the strength of the US dollar, the underperformance of the Japanese Yen suggests that revenge of the low yielders is not the theme in the currency market. Since we are still waiting on the economic stimulus package, the market has shifted its focus away from politics and back onto economics. The comments about sovereign debt ratings by ratings agency Moody have spooked currency traders.
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This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that January was another month of massive job losses. For the third time in a row, more than 500k Americans lost their jobs. The market was looking for payrolls to drop by 540k, but instead they fell by a whopping 598k (Instant Insight on January Non-Farm Payrolls). Yet, currencies and equities traded like non-farm payrolls increased rather than decreased but this baffling response to a very negative number can be easily explained by the prospect of help from Washington.
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non-farm payroll,
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ppi
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Better than expected US economic data was like a breath of fresh air for the currency markets today. Producer prices fell less than expected last month while manufacturing conditions in the Empire State and Philadelphia regions improved. The dollar rebounded against the Japanese Yen indicating that risk aversion is abating, albeit modestly. The overwhelmingly pessimistic investors will not be easily swayed by a few pieces of secondary economic data, especially since all of the numbers are still in negative territory. Looking ahead, we will have another busy day in the currency market with US consumer prices, the Treasury International Capital flow report, industrial production and consumer confidence due for release.
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The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic reports. Thin trading conditions continue to dominate in the currency market, leading to inconsistent trading for the US dollar. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese Yen and British pound but weakened against the Euro. The latest reports on the US economy were weak but not as weak as the market had expected. There was the potential for really bad numbers and the fact that they did not materialize has actually helped the dollar.