COMMENTARY

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  Update: Will GBP/JPY Resume Uptrend at 136.10?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/19/2010 5:57:19 PM ET
  We need to update the profit target for this trade.
  0 comments
• Dollar Posts Gains But Faces Uncertain Week
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/19/2010 4:45:05 PM ET
  The lack of US data helped the dollar run on new concerns stemming from a new chapter in the Greek saga and softness in U.S. equities. The biggest loser by far against the dollar was the pound which was pummeled on news that the Bank of England retains their pessimistic stance on the economy. The euro did not fare to well either, suffering its second consecutive loss. Nevertheless, gains against the yen prove to be elusive, with the dollar eking out only a small rally. Stock markets reflected the overall lax in risk tolerance, submitting to its first loss in eight sessions. Going into trading next week, the health care debate will surely be fresh on everyone’s minds. The house is expected to hold a vote for the bill on Sunday, which could signal big step forward or back depending on the results. Nevertheless, traders will undoubtedly grapple with concerns that the plan will weigh heavily on the economic recovery.
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• Potential AUD/CHF Bounce At .9560
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 3/19/2010 1:22:29 PM ET
  Converging levels of Fibonacci and double-bottom support point to a solid short-term buying opportunity in days to come...
  0 comments
• Pound Wobbles on Tory Troubles
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/19/2010 5:55:49 AM ET
  On the last night of trading for the week, with the eco calendar barren of any data the euro slipped below the 1.3600 figure, plagued by the continuing concerns over the Greek debt crisis situation while pound dropped to 1.5150 in the aftermath of remarks by BOE member Andrew Sentence. In an interview with CNBC Mr. Sentence said he saw encouraging signs of a pick up in the UK and the world economy, but warned that there was still a risk that a financial shock could derail the recovery.
  0 comments
• The Safety Premium in FX
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/19/2010 4:28:29 AM ET
  As the first quarter of 2010 draws to a close and fiscal deficit concerns continue to dominate trade in the market , it is worth noting that some currencies in Europe and North America are starting to carry a “safety premium” due to their better fiscal and trade balance position.
  4 comments
• Will GBP/JPY Resume Uptrend at 136.10?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/18/2010 7:20:44 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/JPY.
  8 comments
• Dollar: Should The FED Raise Discount Rate?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/18/2010 5:10:58 PM ET
  Although the price action in the forex market today suggests that currency traders are nervous, the jitteriness was not shared by equity or bond traders who sent stocks to new yearly highs and pushed bond prices lower. Traders bid up the U.S. dollar against every major currency except for the New Zealand dollar which staged a very modest rally. The biggest story out of the U.S. was not necessarily economic reports but rather the rumor that the Fed could raise their discount rate mid-day. This never materialized but it brought up a good question about whether the central bank should narrow the gap between the discount rate and the Fed funds rate.
  1 comment
• Attractive GBP/NZD Short Brewing...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 3/18/2010 3:40:34 PM ET
  We have an attractive GBP/NZD selling opportunity should prices rally to...
  0 comments
• Dollar: None of the U.S. Data Will Alter the Fed's Course
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/18/2010 10:11:05 AM ET
  U.S. equities reached new 1 year highs this morning but currencies failed to follow. As we mentioned in our daily report yesterday, what is good for equities may be not necessarily good for the U.S. dollar particularly if the catalyst is inflation. Like producer prices, consumer price growth fell short of expectations.
  3 comments
• Euro Pressured By Greek Saga
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/18/2010 6:27:17 AM ET
  Euro came under renewed pressure in the wake of an announcement by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou that Greece may turn to IMF if the EU is unable to provide the country with necessary loan guarantees and lower its cost of borrowing in the credit markets. Meanwhile yen slipped below the 90.00 figure as risk aversion flows flared up in Asia with Nikkei down by almost 1%.
  0 comments
• EU Unable to Work Out A Deal on Greece- Euro Under Pressure
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/18/2010 2:19:59 AM ET
  Euro tumbled more than 50 points in late Asian trade today after Greek officials stated that they were not hopeful about obtaining aid at the March 25th EU summit and may have to turn to the IMF over the long Easter weekend in April. Premier George Papandreou told reporters in Brussels that he had not ruled out turning to the IMF to help with financing needs. Up to now Greece has been able to roll over its debt through market means alone but it has had to pay punitive interest rates that are fully 300 basis points above German bunds.
  0 comments
• Will GBP/AUD Resume Downtrend at 1.6759?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/17/2010 7:01:59 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley/double top is forming on the GBP/AUD.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Dip in Inflation Should Be Temporary
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/17/2010 5:07:10 PM ET
  As we have seen from the price action in the forex markets today, what is good for U.S. equities is not necessarily good for the U.S. dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a 17 year high intraday while the S&P 500 climbed to an 18th month high. Yet the dollar either remained unchanged or weakened against every major currency except for the euro. Currencies and equities behaved very differently because of the nature of the catalyst. The steeper than expected fall in producer prices help to explain why the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates at extremely low levels for an “extended period” of time. Low interest rates are good for stocks because it limits the cost of borrowing but it is bad for the dollar because it reduces the attractiveness of the greenback from a yield perspective. With that in mind however, the market’s reaction to the PPI report is still relatively modest.
  2 comments
• Trade Update: GBP/JPY Stops To Break Even
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 3/17/2010 10:26:18 AM ET
  Last week's emerging short at 139.12 has now come to fruition...
  1 comment
• U.S. PPI and BoJ Provide Signal Upside Potential in USD/JPY
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/17/2010 9:02:10 AM ET
  If you are wondering why the Fed did not remove the pledge to keep interest rates at an extremely low level for an "extended period" of time yesterday, just take a look at this morning's producer price figures.
  4 comments