COMMENTARY

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  GBP/JPY Short Opportunity at 139.27
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/11/2010 7:01:07 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/JPY.
  0 comments
• Dollar: Retail Sales Could Trigger Breakouts
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/11/2010 5:22:10 PM ET
  It has been an extremely quiet day in the foreign exchange market with currency pairs such as the EUR/USD and USD/JPY confined within a 50 pip trading range. This contraction in volatility has been occurring in the EUR/USD for the past few weeks and signals that a breakout is imminent - tomorrow’s U.S. retail sales report will provide the perfect catalyst. Based upon today’s price action which has seen most of the major currency pairs hold onto their recent gains, the odds favor an upside breakout. The strength of the Nasdaq, which hit fresh yearly highs 3 days in a row suggests that risk appetite, at least for U.S. assets remain healthy. Traders are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a reason to buy and if tomorrow’s retail sales report is strong, they will jump into the forex market with conviction.
  0 comments
• Solid GBP/JPY Sell Emerging...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 3/11/2010 1:18:52 PM ET
  Should the GBP/JPY continue to rally off near-term double bottom support at 1.3390, a selling opportunity at 139.12...
  6 comments
• Erratic Reaction in Forex After US and CAD Trade Numbers
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/11/2010 9:00:15 AM ET
  U.S. and Canadian trade numbers for the month of January were much stronger than the market had anticipated but weakness beneath the U.S. trade report's headlines pushed the U.S. dollar sharply lower.
  5 comments
• Will Euro Start A Short Covering Rally?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/11/2010 4:21:27 AM ET
  A quiet session of consolidation in the currency market tonight with most of the event risk occurring in Asia Pacific as data from China and Australia dominated trade while euro and pound remained in tight ranges. Chinese economic performance continued to beat expectations with Retail Sales, Industrial Production and bank lending all exceeding their forecasts. However inflation also rose strongly prompting fears of possible tightening by Chinese monetary officials in the coming months.
  1 comment
• AUD/CHF Trade Example
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/10/2010 7:33:13 PM ET
  We recently completed a bearish butterfly that wasn't posted on FX360. Here we examine what can be learned from this.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Keep an Eye on Chinese Data
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/10/2010 5:23:30 PM ET
  It has been another quiet day in the foreign exchange markets with the U.S. dollar trading higher against some currencies and lower against others. The fragment price action in greenback continues to reflect the divergence in the risks of investing in different countries. The dollar weakened against the euro, Australian dollar and Swiss franc, and strengthened against the British pound, Japanese Yen, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. Sterling continues to be the ultimate underperformer as economic data surprises to the downside. The only pieces of U.S. economic data released today were wholesale inventories and the monthly budget statement – neither of which was meaningful enough to impact the dollar.
  3 comments
• New Zealand Dollar: What to Expect from the Reserve Bank?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/10/2010 11:19:04 AM ET
  This evening, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver their second monetary policy announcement of the year and the key question is whether the central bank will finally bridge the gap between their monetary policy with that of Australia’s
  0 comments
• Will Pound Test Yearly Lows?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/10/2010 5:44:19 AM ET
  The divergence between European and Asian Pacific risk FX continued for the second day in a row in the currency market as both euro and pound slumped against the dollar while Aussie pushed higher. The strength in the AUD/USD was driven by better than expected Chinese Trade Balance data which printed in line at 7.6 Billion but saw exports rise by 45% versus forecasts of 35-40% growth. The news suggests that global economic activity continues to expand and bodes well for the Aussie which remains the primary proxy for the recovery trade amongst the major currencies.
  4 comments
• Weak German Trade Weighs on Euro
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/10/2010 3:00:51 AM ET
  German Trade Balance printed much worse than expected at 8.7B versus 16.4B forecasts as exports slid by -6.30%. This was the weakest reading since the March of 2009 when the global economy was in the throes of its worst contraction in post war period. The news was especially surprising given the decline in the EUR/USD over the past several month. Nevertheless exports plunged by -6.3% their sharpest decline since March of 2009 although they were marginally higher than January of 2009
  2 comments
• What Makes Prices Move?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/9/2010 6:56:02 PM ET
  Technical factors? Fundamental factors? We will discuss why markets move and why it is important to understand the factors behind that movement.
  5 comments
• Dollar: When Will The FED Raise Rates?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/9/2010 5:06:39 PM ET
  The fragmented price action in the forex markets reflect the sharp disparity between what is happening in the North America and Asia with that of Europe. The dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies except for the euro and British pound. Growing concerns about fiscal deficits has scared investors from putting their money into Europe because at any point in time, a downgrade could be announced by rating agencies. Until this risk evaporates, there will probably be more demand to sell euros and pounds. Meanwhile, last Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report has traders talking about the timing of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. With no major U.S. economic developments to talk about today, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at what the market is pricing in for the Federal Reserve this year.
  3 comments
• Further USD/CHF Losses Ahead?
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 3/9/2010 3:51:28 PM ET
  A potential USD/CHF selling opportunity may present itself this week based on an emerging
  4 comments
• 3 Reasons Why the Dollar has Strengthened
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/9/2010 9:37:37 AM ET
  The stability in the forex on Monday was short-lived as comments by ratings agencies sent investors back into the safety of U.S. dollars.
  2 comments
• Euro Rebound Loses Steam, As Debt Concerns Resurface
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/9/2010 5:25:45 AM ET
  Risk FX drifted lower in Asian and early European trade as worries over Southern European sovereign debt continued to dog the EUR/USD while cable suffered from a slew of negative data that pushed the unit back below the 1.5000 level. The Aussie was the only risk currency to hold its ground as data Down Under once again surprised to the upside, but even the G-20 high yield leader could not hold the .9100 figure as risk aversion flows sent it to session lows by mid morning London trade.
  3 comments