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COMMENTARY

• Temporary Pause for the Dollar
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/9/2012 4:46:14 PM ET
  So far, the first few trading days of 2012 has been kind to the U.S. dollar and for good reasons because better than expected U.S. data has been a ray of sunshine at a time when more clouds are forming above Europe. Although the dollar has retreated slightly against the euro
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• FX: SNB Hildebrand Resigns, Merkel-Sarkozy Meeting Disappoints
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/9/2012 9:24:19 AM ET
  The Swiss are making news this morning with Central Bank President Hildebrand announcing his resignation. After
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• Euro Rebounds From Lows on Better Data, Positioning Skew
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/9/2012 5:34:16 AM ET
  Risk rebounded from its lows set during early Asian session trade, boosted by better trade data from Europe, positive equity market flows and anticipation of the upcoming press conference from the first meeting of the year of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Earlier, EUR/USD tumbled to fresh 16 month lows at 1.2666 in opening Asian trade after a miss in Australian Retail Sales cast a negative pall over investor sentiment at the start of week’s dealing.
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• Aussie Tumbles at Start of the Week on Retail Sales Miss
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/8/2012 8:52:11 PM ET
  Australian Retail Sales missed their mark printing at 0.0% versus 0.3% eyed as consumers kept a tight grip on their wallets in November amidst signs of economic slowdown in Asia. The 25bp rate cut by the RBA had little stimulative impact on Australian economy as spending on food and household goods remained flat.
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• CAD/JPY to Resume Uptrend at 74.70?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/6/2012 6:33:23 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern has nearly completed on the CAD/JPY.
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• NFPs Beat Soundly But FX Reaction Muted
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/6/2012 9:11:32 AM ET
  The eagerly awaited US Non-Farm payrolls report solidly beat expectations printing at 200K versus 150K eyed as the American labor market expanded for 15th month in a row. The unemployment rate was also lower to 8.5% from 8.7% the month prior. The data was positive across the board with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% as expected and average hours worked increasing to 34.4 from 34.3 forecast.
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• Risk FX Treads Water Ahead of NFPs
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/6/2012 5:23:45 AM ET
  The currency market was in its usual pre-NFP stall on the final trading day of the week as high beta FX essentially tread water ahead of the crucial US employment report due at 13:30 GMT. Earlier in the Asian session risk assets came under pressure on rumors that North Korea was moving troops on the border in a possible escalation of tensions with the South. However, both EUR/USD and AUD/USD recovered their footing when the rumors which have been rampant turned out to be false.
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• New Zealand Dollar Outlook
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/6/2012 4:21:34 AM ET
  Like many of the other major currencies, the New Zealand dollar performed very differently in the first half of the year. Between January and August, NZD appreciated as much as 13% against the greenback, but between August and December, a steep sell-off stripped away all of the currency’s gains, leaving it virtually unchanged.
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• Is Gold Ready For A Major Correction?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/5/2012 9:40:55 PM ET
  Numerous factors suggest that gold is on the verge of facing a serious retracement.
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• NFP Preview - Job Growth Likely to Meet Consensus
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/5/2012 11:10:38 AM ET
  US equities and risk currencies remained under pressure in opening North American trade today despite the fact that US economic data was generally positive as concerns over European debt trumped the better than forecast US numbers. High beta FX remained near the session lows with EUR/USD breaking below the 1.2800 barrier while cable took out the 1.5500 figure as US equities remained in the red with DJIA off by more -80.00 points.
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• Euro Hits 18 Month Lows as Financing Worries Weigh
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/5/2012 5:52:17 AM ET
  Another night of selling pressure for the EUR/USD as the single currency continues to be plagued by sovereign debt and bank recapitalization concerns. The euro slipped to a fresh multi-month lows at 1.2835 in the wake of lackluster French bond auction and rumors that a major German institution may be in need of further financing. Meanwhile the Italian banking giant Unicredit saw its shares slide for the second day in a row as the declined by more than 10% before being suspended for trading.
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• Swiss Franc Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/5/2012 3:45:38 AM ET
  In one of the wildest rides in recent memory, the Swiss franc went from being “the only sound money” in the FX market to the single most managed currency in the developed world. As the European debt crisis escalated, panicked investors from all across the continent sold euros and flipped their capital into Swiss francs, creating one of the most sustained price runs in FX market history.
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• 2012 Major Currency Pairs Technical Overview
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/4/2012 10:25:18 PM ET
  As we look forward to 2012, it’s logical to take a look back at 2011. I tend to analyze the markets on a “swing” time frame that sometimes only consists of a week or two of data. Yet, it is important to occasionally take a look at the big picture and see if any new lessons can be learned.
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• 2012 Crude Oil Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/4/2012 4:22:13 PM ET
  At the beginning of 2011, crude oil had broken out of a trading range which had lasted for just under a year. For the twelve months from October 2009, prices on both WTI and Brent rarely fell below $70 per barrel and only broke above $80 for a brief period at the end of the first quarter in 2010.
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• Euro Continues to Slide As Debt Concerns Weigh
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/4/2012 10:37:54 AM ET
  Risk FX continued to slide in early North American session today as profit taking and renewed concerns over European sovereign debt issues weighed sentiment. US equities were lower by more than 40 points in the first hour of trade as markets reacted to a lackluster auction of German 10 year bonds. Earlier Germany was able to auction off only 4 out of 5 Billion Euro offering at bid to cover ratio of 1.3 and a yield of 1.94%.
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