COMMENTARY

• EUR/CHF Near Opportunity to Go Long at 1.5110
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/19/2009 9:02:40 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern is emerging on the EUR/CHF.
  4 comments
• Will Bernanke Support the Dollar?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/19/2009 9:40:57 AM ET
  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be giving a speech today at 15:00 GMT in San Francisco and although few market participants expect any market making news to come from the event, Mr. Bernanke may feel compelled to make a reference to the dollar given the recent weakness in the unit.
  3 comments
• Will Euro Hit 1.5000?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/19/2009 5:44:54 AM ET
  After a bit of profit taking in the Asia session the recovery trade was back on at the start of European open with EUR/USD once again breaking above the 1.4900 barrier while Aussie climbed above 92.00. The pound was the laggard of the night dropping below the1.6300 barrier after the MPC member Adam Posen stating that he may back an extension of the 175 Billion QE program by the central bank.
  13 comments
• An End to QE from BOJ?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/19/2009 4:01:05 AM ET
  Bank of Japan minutes indicated that members are beginning to consider an exit strategy for the ultra accommodative policy including the end of the quantitative easing program to help corporate funding. "The amount of Commercial Paper and corporate bonds purchased by the Bank has declined significantly, and interest rates in fund-supplying operations ... have been stable at low levels," the minutes quoted a few members as saying.
  4 comments
• EUR/CHF To Resume Downtrend At 1.5243?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/16/2009 6:37:18 PM ET
  There is a bearish Gartley/double top pattern forming on the EUR/CHF.
  3 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Putting Up A Good Fight
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/16/2009 4:29:55 PM ET
  It has been a tough week for the U.S. dollar, but the greenback is putting up a good fight. After hitting fresh year to date lows on Friday, the dollar staged a dramatic recovery that led many currency traders to wonder if we are finally seeing a turn in the dollar. The greenback ended the last trading day of the week higher against nearly all of the major currencies. In fact, it was the first time this week that the dollar closed higher than it opened against the euro and Australian dollar. During strong trends like the one that we are in now, traders look at every hiccup as a potential of being “the” top or bottom in a currency pair.
  4 comments
• Currencies Retreat in the Face of Mixed U.S. Data
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/16/2009 10:09:40 AM ET
  The U.S. dollar is trading well off the lows that it reached during the early Asian trading session. Last night, the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed to fresh 14 month highs against the greenback
  10 comments
• Warning Signs- Long Bars Review
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/15/2009 7:57:55 PM ET
  In accordance with your feedback, we will review why we should look for long bars and how we recognize them.
  7 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Will The Trend Last?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/15/2009 5:08:33 PM ET
  It has been an exceptionally active day in the currency market particularly for the GBP/USD and USD/JPY which have recently been lagging their peers in terms of volatility. The biggest mover of the day on a percentage basis is the British pound which rose 1.66 percent against the dollar, 1.64 percent against the euro and a whopping 3.1 percent against the Japanese Yen. Prior to today’s moves, the GBP/USD and USD/JPY remained under pressure while other currency pairs such as the EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD climbed to new highs. On Tuesday, we had warned that the lack of volatility and quiet trading represented the calm before the storm and now that breakout moves have occurred, the big question is whether the trends will last.
  4 comments
• Trade Update: NZD/JPY Short Finally Hits...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/15/2009 4:12:28 PM ET
  Due to the more recent price action, adjustments have been made to the profit targets which now sit at 64.19 (T1) and 60.42 (T2). Additionally, stops will be moved to break-even if prices drop to 66.07....
  15 comments
• RBA - Too Hawkish For its Own Good?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/15/2009 10:48:12 AM ET
  Last night RBA Governor Glenn Stevens signaled that Australian monetary authorities will continue to tighten policy as the year comes to a close. Speaking to an audience in Perth Stevens said, “If we were prepared to cut rates rapidly, to a very low level, in response to a threat but then were too timid to lessen that stimulus in a timely way when the threat had passed, we would have a bias in our monetary policy framework. Experience here and elsewhere counsels against that approach.”
  6 comments
• Currencies Benefits from Positive U.S. Data Despite Trichet Comments
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/15/2009 9:20:23 AM ET
  The U.S. dollar surged against the Japanese Yen at the onset of NY trading following stronger than expected economic data and comments from ECB President Trichet. We have long said that the only external factor that could stop the dollar from falling are critical comments from central bank Presidents.
  0 comments
• Risk Rally Relentless As Cable Joins the Move
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/15/2009 5:43:06 AM ET
  Another night of strong gains for high beta FX with Aussie setting a fresh 2009 year high above .9200 and even cable joined the party blasting past 1.6200 barrier as short covering on the crosses fueled the unit’s rise. The news continues to be uber bullish for commdollar currencies of Asia Pacific as New Zealand CPI printed much hotter than expected stoking speculation that RBNZ will be the next central bank to raise rates while in Australia RBA Governor Glenn Stevens signaled that he will tighten policy further before the end of the year.
  11 comments
• Bonus USD/JPY Trade: Sell at 90.11
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/14/2009 6:41:35 PM ET
  A short term bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the USD/JPY.
  10 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Race to Parity
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/14/2009 5:01:44 PM ET
  With the Dow breaking 10,000 and the dollar falling to fresh 14 month lows against 4 out of the 7 major currencies, it is time for traders to just accept the dollar’s weakness. The dollar has not been able to benefit from good news or bad news. The better than expected U.S. retail sales report lifted equities and risk appetite at the expense of the U.S. dollar. The selling exacerbated after the FOMC minutes revealed that committee members were open to the idea of expanding purchases of mortgage backed securities. In contrast to last week’s comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, this sentiment puts the central bank further and not closer to implementing an exit strategy. As a result, unless there is an exogenous event such as verbal intervention by the European Central Bank to stop the euro from rising, the dollar could continue to fall, pushing the EUR/USD to 1.50 and the Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc towards parity with the greenback.
  2 comments