COMMENTARY

• CAD/JPY Approaching Resistance at 88.30
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/22/2009 7:04:03 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley/double top is forming on the CAD/JPY.
  0 comments
• Steadily Declining GBP/NZD Facing Resistance
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/22/2009 2:20:18 PM ET
  Prices ready to drop in accordance with longer-term bear trendline resistance as they currently also face near-term 61.8% resistance (R1 on 30min below)...
  2 comments
• Unexpected Jump in Job Losses Dampens Risk
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/22/2009 9:07:02 AM ET
  After declining for two consecutive weeks US jobless claims rose an unexpected 11,000 to 531K from 515k projected. The less volatile four week average of initial claims continued to decline albeit at a glacial pace as it moved from 533K to 532.5K.
  0 comments
• Dollar Rebounds Off the Lows as Risk Expectations Ease
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/22/2009 5:17:39 AM ET
  Dollar gained some strength in overnight trade after a series of data misses from China and high beta FX currencies dampened risk appetite and sent equities lower in both Asia and Europe. Chinese GDP numbers printed in line with consensus at 8.9% but missed the whisper number of 9.1% precipitating a profit taking sell off in Aussie and kiwi.
  8 comments
• Chinese Data Misses Slightly But Comm Dollars Remain Bid
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/22/2009 2:40:42 AM ET
  Chinese economic performance data showed an increase across all measures but missed expectations triggering a modest sell off in G-10 growth currencies. Chinese GDP printed at 8.9% versus 9.0% expected, Industrial Production rose at 13.9% rate versus 12.3% the period prior and Retail Sales matched expectations printing at 15.5%.
  0 comments
• EUR/NZD Approaching Buying Opportunity at 1.9631
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/21/2009 7:51:11 PM ET
  Two bullish butterflies are forming on the EUR/NZD.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Late Day Action
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/21/2009 4:47:45 PM ET
  The last hour of trading was by far the most frantic as stock gains disappeared almost instantaneously thanks to a barrage of economic concerns. The Dow finished the day down more than 90 points after reaching a new high above the 10,100 level. The dollar received a quick burst of buying as a result; taking a notch out of what was substantial weakness. However, even the combination of a disappointing Beige Book and comments from Larry Summers indicating that he stands behind a strong dollar could not reverse dollar losses entirely. In fact, today was another momentous day for selling the greenback. EUR/USD, in particular, penetrated the critical 1.50 level to reach a new high. Meanwhile, the pound finally started to join the action, posting a sizable 200 pip advance against the dollar. The kiwi was also a strong performer today and broke through to a new fifteen month high. The evidence of dollar weakness is even more substantial in light of the fact that rallies did not falter in the face of a complete reversal in stocks.
  1 comment
• Euro Breaks 1.5000 - Now What?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/21/2009 10:28:01 AM ET
  It took what seemed like an interminable ten minutes but EUR/USD finally broke the psychologically key 1.5000 barrier in early US morning trade, propelled there by supportive equity flows as the Dow approached the 10,100 level. The pair had repelled any and all efforts to penetrate the figure over the past 24 hours but finally succumbed to the pressure despite the massive barrier defense put forth by option players
  8 comments
• Pound Soars As BoE Less Dovish - EUR/GBP to Break .9000?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/21/2009 5:47:31 AM ET
  Risk FX recovered its losses tonight after rumors swept the market that Chinese Industrial Production will print much better than the consensus forecast. The leak that China’s IP will come in at 14.1% versus 13.3% eyed helped fuel a rally in Asian and early European sessions as traders positioned themselves ahead of the official release of data due at 2:00 GMT tomorrow.
  7 comments
• China Holds the Key to Risk FX
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/21/2009 4:16:46 AM ET
  The most important economic data in G-10 FX this week may come from China rather than any of the advanced industrialized nations. Tomorrow China will report its GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures at 2:00 GMT and the results could have a major impact on the risk trade in FX.
  3 comments
• Update: EUR/CHF Near Opportunity to Go Long at 1.5110
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/20/2009 6:51:01 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern has nearly completed on the EUR/CHF.
  6 comments
• USD/CHF Headed to .99?
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/20/2009 1:06:38 PM ET
  A close below 1.01 may trigger a potentially strong bearish continuation...
  0 comments
• Canada Dovish; US Data Disappoints
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/20/2009 9:15:16 AM ET
  US economic data printed softer than expected today with headline PPI numbers contracting a sharper than expected -0.6% versus 0.1% eyed while housing starts rose only a modest 0.5% to 590K versus 610K eyed. The drop in producer prices was the result of lower energy costs – a trend that could reverse itself if oil prices remain above the $80/bbl level for a sustained period of time.
  3 comments
• Will Data Help Dollar Yen?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/20/2009 5:30:31 AM ET
  Another lackluster night of trade on the FX market as the dollar remained near yearly lows against most of the high beta FX, but both euro and Aussie failed to hold key levels in what may be an early sign of a pause in the recovery trade. The dollar also slipped against the yen on commentary by Finance Minister Fujii who noted that dollar weakness was behind the recent strengthening of the yen.
  12 comments
• Will $100/bbl Oil Kill the Recovery?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/20/2009 3:10:34 AM ET
  Oil hit $80/bbl in overnight trade reaching that level for the first time since November. The rise in crude has been sparked by a combination of expanding risk appetite and a surprising decline in gasoline inventories last week that prompted the breakout from the $70-$75/bbl consolidation channel.
  4 comments