COMMENTARY

• U.S. Data Points to Hiccups Along the Road
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/18/2010 10:24:02 AM ET
  The currency market is struggling to gain traction this morning as U.S. equities open higher for the third consecutive trading day.
  3 comments
• Euro Holds 1.3550, Pound Hurt By Borrowing Data
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/18/2010 5:01:10 AM ET
  EUR/USD continued to trade cautiously on either side of 1.3550 after setting yet another fresh eight month low at 1.3440 in early European trade, while cable was pressured by negative comments from BOE’s Barker who suggested that another quarter of negative growth was a distinct possibility for the beleaguered UK economy. In an interview with an Irish newspaper “The Newsletter”, Kate Baker noted that the recovery in the UK economy will be “quite hesitant” although she did not think that country would experience a double dip recession.
  4 comments
• Review: Trading Psychology and Drawdowns
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 2/17/2010 6:42:59 PM ET
  Why is psychology the most important aspect of trading how to stay in the right frame of mind.
  13 comments
• Dollar Soars As Fed Talks Exit Strategies
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/17/2010 5:04:42 PM ET
  Dollar bulls cheered as the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting reveal that Fed officials have not only begun to discuss exit strategies, but are actually debating the specifics. This discussion took place at the end of January, before the recent string of strong economic data which means the continued improvement in the U.S. economy will only strengthen the central bank’s desire to reduce their balance sheet. In response to the hawkish minutes, the dollar soared against every major currency. The biggest gains for the dollar were seen against the Japanese Yen and the euro, while the most resilient currencies were the Australian and Canadian dollars, which fell but not by much. This type of power move in USD/JPY typically continues into the Asian trading session but fades by the end of following NY session which happened on August 7th and June 4th. Although this price action could be repeated tomorrow, the prospect of stronger U.S. economic reports reduces that risk.
  0 comments
• AUD/CAD Approaching Key .9460 Resistance
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 2/17/2010 11:47:12 AM ET
  A potential AUD/CAD selling opportunity approaching...
  1 comment
• Dollar: Stronger U.S. Data Leads to More Optimism
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/17/2010 9:24:12 AM ET
  Another round of relatively healthy U.S. economic data has helped the dollar extend its gains, particularly against the Japanese Yen.
  0 comments
• Euro Steady But Pound Wobbles After Weak Employment Results
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/17/2010 5:43:06 AM ET
  Risk currencies continued their recovery rally in Asia and early European trade but ran into wall of selling after UK unemployment data shocked to the downside indicating that economic growth in Great Britain remains extremely weak. UK claimant count rose to 23.5K rather than contracting by -14.6K as markets forecast. The unemployment rate remained steady at 7.8% but average earnings rose only 0.8% versus 1.2% expected – a record low pace for a third straight month.
  0 comments
• UK Unemployment Shocks to the Downside
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/17/2010 5:06:19 AM ET
  UK unemployment data showed surprising deterioration as claimant count rose to 23.5K rather than contracting by -14.6K as markets forecast. The unemployment rate remained steady at 7.8% but average earnings rose only 0.8% versus 1.2% expected – a record low pace for a third straight month.
  0 comments
• Recap: AUD/JPY Short at 80.11
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 2/16/2010 7:30:19 PM ET
  We will recap the AUD/JPY trade we have been tracking for the past two days.
  0 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Is The Risk Rally Sustainable?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/16/2010 4:53:48 PM ET
  Stronger economic data triggered a sharp rally in the foreign exchange market that has many traders wondering if the dramatic shift in risk appetite is here to stay. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 165 points, investors pulled their money out of the safety of U.S. dollars and put them back into higher yielding and riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars and for the first time in 5 trading days, in euros as well. Investors barely blinked after the stronger retail sales report on Friday but this morning’s upside surprises may have finally convinced them that there are broad and not isolated improvements in the U.S. economy. The answer to the question of whether the risk rally is here to stay larger depends upon whether the FOMC minutes tomorrow will reinforce the hawkish comments made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier this month.
  5 comments
• Trade Update: GBP/JPY Short In Progress
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 2/16/2010 1:33:17 PM ET
  As it stands now, the initial target of 141.49 represents a 38.2% correction of the projected CD leg, at which point stops will be moved to break-even (B/E)
  10 comments
• Forex: Stronger Economic Data Bolsters Risk Appetite
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/16/2010 8:52:23 AM ET
  U.S. traders are back from their 3 day weekend and have brought their jovial and relaxed moods with them. Most of the higher yielding currencies rebounded against the U.S. dollar this morning thanks to the combination of stronger economic data and a short covering rally.
  0 comments
• Risk Rally Capped For Both Euro and Pound
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/16/2010 8:13:28 AM ET
  The rally in risk FX which steadily gained strength throughout Asian trade ran out of momentum in midmorning London dealing today after slightly softer than expected UK CPI numbers and a lower German ZEW reading tempered investor enthusiasm. UK CPI printed at 3.1% vs.2.8% the month prior but was actually weaker than the market expectations of 3.2%.
  0 comments
• Another RBA Rate Hike Coming
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/16/2010 2:04:10 AM ET
  The minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia revealed that further interest rate hikes are likely but will occur at much more gradual pace than the last quarter of 2009 when the central bank increased benchmark rates for three months in a row. The Board noted that, “If economic conditions continued to improve as expected, further increases in the cash rate were likely to be necessary. But they did not regard that outlook as requiring an increase at every meeting,"
  0 comments
• Update: AUD/JPY Near Short Opportunity at 80.11
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 2/15/2010 6:50:41 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern has completed on the AUD/JPY.
  4 comments