COMMENTARY

• AUD/CAD Hits Triple Top, Ready to Drop...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/27/2009 5:29:47 PM ET
  Looking at long-term price action we see that the recent peak near .9840 comes in at previously established major resistance with prices having topped out near this level three times in the past...
  3 comments
• No Confidence as Consumer Sentiment Hits 3 Month Low
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/27/2009 10:30:07 AM ET
  US Consumer Confidence plunged to 47.7 versus 53.1 projected with current expectations component slumping to a 26 year low. Persistent fears of job losses have dampened consumer sentiment which in turn could result in a weaker than expected Christmas shopping season reducing growth estimates for Q4.
  5 comments
• Housing Prices Stabilize
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/27/2009 9:23:17 AM ET
  US housing prices rose for the third consecutive month suggesting that the housing sector may be stabilizing after experiencing the worst contraction since the Great Depression. The Case Schiller index of housing rose by 1% in August after registering a 1.2% gain in the month of July.
  0 comments
• Euro Correction Could Continue
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/27/2009 5:38:05 AM ET
  A very quiet consolidative session in the currency market tonight. Risk FX received a boost early in the Asian session when a report from Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information suggested that Industrial Production could expand at a blistering 16% pace while the Ministry of Commerce noted that Chinese investments abroad have jumped 190%. However, after a quick burst above the 1.4900 handle, the EUR/USD once again dipped into the 1.4800’s as profit taking kicked in.
  12 comments
• GBP/CHF To Face Test At 1.7069.
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/26/2009 7:39:26 PM ET
  A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the GBP/CHF.
  0 comments
• Will .9100 Provide Short-Term AUD/USD Bounce?
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/26/2009 5:06:51 PM ET
  AUD/USD rates fell aggressively overnight but now approach previously established minor support and bullish butterfly pattern completion near .9100...
  1 comment
• Dollar Rally May Have Legs
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/26/2009 5:01:22 PM ET
  Volatility has ripped through the financial markets with currencies and equities staging sharp intraday reversals. All of the major currency pairs have seen an increase in one month volatilities on the fears that valuation and recovery expectations have become overextended. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies, driving the EUR/USD down more than 125 pips in the process. With such a strong reversal, the burning question on the minds of all currency traders is whether the latest move is merely profit taking on dollar short positions or the beginnings of a full fledged reversal.
  0 comments
• Rise in Oil and its Implication for Forex
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/26/2009 11:03:09 AM ET
  One of the biggest stories in the financial markets is the sharp rise in oil prices. Last week, crude hit a one year high of $82 a barrel, more than doubling its beginning of the year prices. Judging from the trading pattern of oil, there is a possibility that by the end of the year, a barrel of oil could cost more than $100.
  5 comments
• Euro Rally Runs Out of Steam - A Turn in Risk Assets?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/26/2009 4:20:55 AM ET
  As trading kicked off for the week, the dollar was rattled once again by comments from Zhou Hai, a PBOC official who wrote an editorial calling for the Chinese central bank to increase its proportion of reserves of euros and yen. Writing in the central bank backed Financial News, Mr. Hai stated that the U.S. dollar should retain the largest weighting in the reserves, albeit a smaller proportion than at present, while the holdings of euro and yen should be increased to reflect China’s growing trade with the European Union and Japan.
  3 comments
• Australian Inflation Subdued - Is Aussie Ready to Correct?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/26/2009 2:35:12 AM ET
  Q3 Australian Producer Price Index printed softer than expected at 0.1% versus projections for an 0.3% increase but the data was markedly higher than the -0.8% decline in Q2. On an annual basis producer prices were up 0.2 percent versus forecasts for a 0.5 percent rise after the 2.1 percent gain in the previous three months.
  2 comments
• Dollar Returns with Vengeance
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/23/2009 4:56:37 PM ET
  The potential for a substantial rise above 10,000 in the Dow seems to be elusive for the markets. Stocks fell more than 1.10% today and managed to erase all of this week’s gains providing an ample boost for the dollar. Investors are dealing with a lot of uncertainties right now, not the least of which includes a rampant regulatory over hall headed by the Fed. After yesterday’s announcement that the bank is working on a plan to reshape the compensation system among the financial services industry, Bernanke indicated that higher capital requirements could be another possibility in the regulatory framework. Adding to investor woes is the mass skepticism that is following the current earnings season. Even though an overwhelming majority of companies are reporting better earnings, per share profits were down significantly from last year. To top things off, oil took a tumble, landing more than one percent lower on the day. Today’s decline still does not mask the fact that we are in the mists of a serious rally, but similar tremors could add some strength to the dollar as it did today. The dollar held its head higher across the board but saw its most substantial gains against the pound which surrendered 1.8 percent.
  6 comments
• NZD/CHF Buy on Dip to .7530
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/23/2009 2:16:21 PM ET
  An emerging NZD/CHF bullish butterfly pattern (see 2hr chart) points to a potential buying opportunity if prices manage to dip to pattern completion near point D at...7530...
  2 comments
• Existing Home Sales Proves Good for the Dollar
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/23/2009 10:31:01 AM ET
  Existing Home Sales far exceeded expectations thanks to recent stabilization in the employment market with the added benefit of mortgage rates holding under the 5% mark. Home sales were boosted 9.4% in the month of September, far outweighing market estimates of an only 5.5% increase. The annual rate of home sales have increased to 5.57 million from the 5.10 million reported in the prior month.
  3 comments
• Pound Down - But Not Out?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/23/2009 6:08:44 AM ET
  A shocker of a GDP number sent cable plunging more than 2 cents in early European trade, injecting a massive doze of volatility into an otherwise calm currency market as the week approached its close. UK GDP printed at -0.4% vs. 0.2% contracting for the sixth consecutive quarter in a row – the worst performance in post war era.
  5 comments
• Disaster! UK GDP Sinks For Sixth Quarter in a Row
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/23/2009 5:11:33 AM ET
  UK GDP data proved to be disastrous printing at -0.4% versus 0.2% eyed marking six consecutive quarters of negative growth – the worst stretch of economic performance in the post war era. The decline was driven by contraction in production which fell -0.7%, construction which declined -1.1% and services which dipped -0.2%.
  4 comments