COMMENTARY

• Global Manufacturing Supports the Risk Trade But For How Long?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/2/2009 4:31:25 AM ET
  As trading kicked off for the week risk appetite rebounded with EUR/USD and AUD/USD gaining more than 70 points at the start of European trade. Part of the boost came from continued expansionary readings in global PMI manufacturing surveys all of which printed firmly above the 50 boom/bust line.
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• U.S. Dollar: One Wild Ride!
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/30/2009 5:06:33 PM ET
  Tremendous volatility is the easiest way to sum up the events that have taken place in the last 24 hours. With the VIX accelerating by the most in a year, fear has definitely taken over in the markets. It is rare to see almost all major currency pairs slipping by more than 100 pips against the dollar, that’s to say except for USD/JPY which was driven into the ground by 1.6%. The worst performer has been the kiwi which lost more than 2.0% against the dollar and 3.75% against the yen in today’s trading alone. Stocks have also reached a number of milestones: The Dow has fallen the most since April, gains in the month of October have been completely reversed, and the S&P has seen its first monthly decline since April. Things have definitely taken a different tone, but the ultimate direction that the market decides to pursue heavily depends on some key events for next week.
  2 comments
• Chicago PMI Beats But Weak Employment Dampens Rally in Risk
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/30/2009 10:12:08 AM ET
  Chicago PMI report blew out estimates printing at 54.2 versus 49 forecast and well above the 46.1 reading recorded the month prior. This was only the second time in more than a year that the Chicago PMI report rose above the key 50 boom/bust line indicating a string pickup in economic activity,
  3 comments
• Euro Holds 1.4800 - Will the Risk Rally Continue?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/30/2009 4:51:33 AM ET
  A listless night in the currency market tonight as most risk FX marked time by consolidating yesterday large gains in the wake of surprisingly robust US GDP number. The yen strengthened on the back of a more hawkish tone from BOJ while euro and cable drifted lower as German Retail Sales once again printed negative and UK housing prices rose less than expected.
  2 comments
• BOJ Retreats From QE - Yen Strengthens
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/30/2009 3:32:27 AM ET
  Bank of Japan maintained its overnight interest rate at 0.10% - the lowest in G10 universe – but removed some key stimulative measures which triggered a small rally in the yen. The central bank stated that it would end its outright purchase of corporate bonds and commercial paper in December noting that “it becomes necessary to adopt the most effective method for money market operations that conforms to changes in financial markets.
  3 comments
• Better US GDP Revives Recovery Trade
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/29/2009 9:17:01 AM ET
  US GDP printed much stronger than expected at 3.5% versus estimates of 3.2% sparking a fresh round of buying in risk currencies as the recovery theme was revived. Personal consumption rose at a 3.4% annualized versus 3.1% eyed indicating that the consumer rebounded in Q3 despite persistent labor market weakness in the US economy. The rise in the GDP was the first since the second quarter of 2008 suggesting that the contraction in the US economy is over for now.
  6 comments
• Euro Finds Support As German Employment Rises
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/29/2009 6:20:34 AM ET
  Risk FX recovered some of its losses in overnight trade after some better than expected data from Europe and UK helped to stabilize high beta currencies. In Europe the German unemployment once again surprised to the upside declining for the second month in a row while in UK mortgage approvals rose to their best level in 16 months.
  2 comments
• Kiwi- End of the Run?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/29/2009 4:48:24 AM ET
  The RBNZ left its rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected but issued a relatively dovish statement that suggested it will not consider tightening monetary policy in the foreseeable future. Although the central bank switched its bias from easing to neutral, it went out of its way to state that rates are likely to remain stationary.
  6 comments
• Review: Planning Your Trades
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/28/2009 7:31:57 PM ET
  Why you should plan every trade before entering and how this improves your trading results.
  15 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Risk Adverse Mentality
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/28/2009 4:53:25 PM ET
  Another day of trading brought many markets to their knees, with the dollar and yen emerging as the true victors. The risk adverse patterns have clearly been brought back in to play. The most glaring example of this would have to be the large declines in the commodity currencies like NZD/USD which lost 2.6%. However, the one unexpected component of today’s trading was that the pound managed to resist the downward pressure. Risk tolerance was obliterated on weak New Home Sales and a continued selloff in stocks. The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive day, a decline that has almost completely erased the gains made earlier this month.
  2 comments
• EUR/GBP Buy Approaching, Attractive Risk/Reward
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/28/2009 2:26:31 PM ET
  The EUR/GBP is showing solid near-term support near .8820 based on an emerging 8hr bullish Gartley pattern projected to complete near the following Fibonacci/pattern convergence....
  5 comments
• Durable Goods Inline -Offer No Lift to Risk
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/28/2009 8:53:10 AM ET
  US Durable Goods orders matched market expectations rising 1.0% in the month of September. Ex transportation Durable Goods increased 0.9% versus 0.7% eyed. Capital goods were up sharply at 2.7% but ex defense or transportation core capital goods actually declined -0.2%
  8 comments
• Will Risk Appetite Return or Will EUR/USD Tumble to 1.4700?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/28/2009 5:35:00 AM ET
  Another listless night of trade in the FX market dominated by risk aversion flows as both Asian and European equities sold off and the MSCI index declined for the seventh straight day in row. With European eco calendar once again empty, the only news of note was from Asia Pacific where the Australian CPI printed a tad hotter than forecast.
  8 comments
• Australian Inflation in Line - RBA Hike Likely Limited to 25bp
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/28/2009 2:17:19 AM ET
  Australian CPI printed hotter than expected at 1.0% versus 0.9% forecast while the trimmed mean data was in line at 0.8%. This was the third positive quarterly inflation reading in a row and the sharpest rise yet this year. Last quarter CPI rose 0.5%.
  7 comments
• EUR/CHF To Resume Uptrend At 1.5055?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/27/2009 7:20:05 PM ET
  A bullish butterfly pattern is forming on the EUR/CHF 4hr Chart.
  2 comments