COMMENTARY

• TRADE UPDATE: Move To Risk-Free On AUD/CAD Short...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/4/2009 3:14:20 PM ET
  Last week's AUD/CAD short (at.9792) has been moving along nicely, and it's time now to move stops to break-even....
  0 comments
• FOMC Unchanged - What's Next?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/4/2009 2:52:31 PM ET
  The Federal Reserve has kept its overnight target rate unchanged maintaining rates between 0-25 basis points and more importantly kept the key language the same as the month prior stating, “The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
  2 comments
• Does ADP Suggest That Fed Will Stay Pat?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/4/2009 8:58:08 AM ET
  ADP employment report printed at -203K versus forecast of -190K suggesting that the overall NFP number on Friday could come in as high -263K jobs versus current market projections of -175K. The ADP numbers have been notoriously inaccurate understating the actual BLS statistics by more than 103K average over the past five months which indicates that the NFP numbers could be weaker than the market expects and most probably will remain above the psychologically key -200K level.
  3 comments
• Risk Returns - But All Eyes on FMOC
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/4/2009 6:49:04 AM ET
  Risk currencies rallied throughout the Asian and European session helped by better than expected data out of UK firmer equity prices and further gains in gold which reached another record high of $1093/oz. Asian and European bourses tacked on gains as global economic data continued to show steady improvement. Yesterday’s US auto sales which came in at 10.2 million annual run rate suggested that consumer demand appears to have stabilized lending further credence to the recovery trade.
  5 comments
• How To Be Bullish Gold Through The Currency Market
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/4/2009 4:43:17 AM ET
  Gold has hit yet another record high rising to $1093/oz in overnight trade. The latest surge has been triggered by news that India’s central bank purchased 200 tonnes from the International Monetary Fund – the largest such transaction by a central bank in over thirty years.
  2 comments
• Bonus AUD/USD Short Opportunity at 0.9074
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/3/2009 7:21:18 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the AUD/USD.
  10 comments
• TRADE UPDATE: Potential EUR/GBP Invalidation
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/3/2009 4:42:36 PM ET
  The recent, relatively shallow, rally last week presents a possible trade invalidation measure if prices manage to make new lows under .8900 while holding the recent top near .9069...
  0 comments
• Central Bank Week - What Does it Mean for FX?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/3/2009 9:49:54 AM ET
  With three central bank meeting scheduled for the next 48hours we thought it worthwhile to examine the key issues facing monetary authorities in each region and speculate on the possible impact on FX of their respective policy decisions.
  5 comments
• Dollar Gains as Risk Concerns Linger
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/3/2009 5:47:22 AM ET
  Risk off in Asian and European trade tonight as both the dollar and the yen strengthened against the high beta currencies with traders cautious ahead of the central bank meetings scheduled over the next several days. In Australia the RBA did hike rates as expected by 25 basis points, but its statement suggested that the central bankers in Canberra may pause in December and Aussie promptly fell on the news giving up the .9000 barrier.
  0 comments
• RBA Hikes Interest Rates by 25bp, More to Come
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/2/2009 10:57:02 PM ET
  For the second month in a row, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised overnight interest rates. In the classic buy the rumor, sell the news type of reaction, the Australian dollar has given back some of its earlier gains.
  13 comments
• Trading Plan Follow Up: Following the Plan
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/2/2009 6:29:02 PM ET
  It is one thing to create a trading plan. It is another to consistently follow it.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Global Manufacturing Boom
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/2/2009 4:46:27 PM ET
  An erratic day of trading results in generally widespread dollar weakness after a barrage of world-wide manufacturing reports indicated that the sector will continue to aid the recovery charge. Right out of the gates, the dollar was a big loser, with a more than 100 pip move lower against the euro. However, the rallies in both currencies and stock were faded when the Associate Director of the Fed’s regulatory arm called the financial system “far from robust”. What was bad timing on the Fed’s part reversed much of the risk rally that was seen in early trading. However, a late day rally managed to revive some of the earlier gains. Even though most currencies are off their highs, the big mover of the day was USD/CAD which shed 0.61 percent. Furthermore, the pound, which was one of the only majors not to make some gains, fell by a third of a percent. The S&P 500 closed up 0.64 percent, after reaching highs of 1.5 percent.
  1 comment
• Prime AUD/CAD Selling Opportunity At Hand
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/2/2009 3:41:15 PM ET
  From a risk/reward standpoint we have an excellent trade opportunity at hand with initial targets at .9450 and .9200...
  21 comments
• Risk On! As ISM Manufacturing Beats
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/2/2009 10:45:19 AM ET
  The ISM Manufacturing report blew past estimates printing at 55.7 versus forecasts of 50 as it remained above the key 50 boom/bust line for the third month in a row. More importantly the employment subcomponent of the report rose a whopping 7 points printing at 52.1 versus 46.2 the month prior.
  0 comments
• Will Euro Make Another Run at 1.50?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/2/2009 5:06:14 AM ET
  Risk FX rebounded slightly at the start of week’s trade after a series of manufacturing PMI reports confirmed that economic activity in G-20 remained in expansionary mode. In Australia the AIG Manufacturing Index came in at 51.7 in France the final data showed a rise to 55.6, in Switzerland the SVME PMI registered a 54.0 reading and in Eurozone the manufacturing data posted a 50.7 print.
  0 comments