COMMENTARY

• 5 Reasons Why the Dollar Could Continue to Lose Value
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/9/2009 10:35:13 AM ET
  Freshly back from Australia, I am hardly surprised by the fresh wave of dollar weakness. Over the past few months we have talked extensively about why the dollar could continue to fall. As the EUR/USD cracks above 1.50 for the second time in 2 months and USD/JPY extends its losses below 90, there are many reasons why the overall trend in the dollar is still down.
  6 comments
• Dollar Dumped as Week Begins
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/9/2009 5:51:38 AM ET
  The risk trade was on in full force at the start of the week in the currency market as euro cleared the 1.5000 barrier, Aussie came within a few pips of .93000 and cable rallied to 1.6840. The weekend meeting of the G-20 provided some nice support as finance ministers signaled that they will continue to maintain expansionary fiscal policies in support of the global recovery.
  4 comments
• Can Dollar Weakness Turn Into a Currency Crisis?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/9/2009 4:51:38 AM ET
  After a mild counter trend rally over the past several weeks, the dollar once again finds itself near yearly lows against most major currencies as the new trading week begins. The currency market continues to like risk pushing the greenback lower against the euro, pound and Aussie on carry trade flows.
  7 comments
• What Makes Prices Move?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/6/2009 6:34:42 PM ET
  Technical factors? Fundamental factors? We will discuss why markets move and why it is important to understand the factors behind that movement.
  45 comments
• U.S. Dollar: 10.2% Unemployment - The Number Says It All
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/6/2009 6:01:39 PM ET
  As disappointing as the NFP may have been, most markets took the number in stride. The dollar showed mostly mixed weakness on the day, while strengthening against the euro and the Canadian dollar. The aussie was the biggest victor of the day rising against the dollar by 0.84%, a signal that largely confirms that the risk trade remains fairly intact. On the other hand, the loonie took the largest fall on disappointing employment numbers. Stock markets swayed in and out of positive territory on disagreements over whether today’s events warranted a rally. The bulls won out, and pushed the Dow further above the 10,000 mark.
  2 comments
• Short-Term CHF/JPY Buy Emerging...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/6/2009 1:10:57 PM ET
  We have a potential short-term CHF/JPY buying opportunity at .87.74 based on an emerging 30min bullish Gartley pattern...
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• Mixed NFPs - Keep the Risk Trade Capped For Now
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/6/2009 9:03:00 AM ET
  Non Farm Payrolls for October presented a decidedly mixed picture with headline unemployment rate jumping into double digits but the job losses from payrolls dropping bellow the -200K barrier, The unemployment rate reached 10.2% - the highest level in more than 26 years, breaking the psychologically important 10% barrier. However payrolls dipped below -200K to -190K for only the second time in more than a year indicating that layoffs are beginning to plateau. Additionally average hourly earnings increased to 2.4% y/y from 2.2% eyed suggesting that wage deflation has eased.
  2 comments
• Euro, Pound Firm Ahead of NFP -Will Risk Rally?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/6/2009 5:01:42 AM ET
  A generally subdued night in the currency markets but the pre positioning ahead of the NFP report suggests that FX traders are following their equity colleagues by remaining long risk as EUR/USD tested the 1.4900 level and GBP/USD rose above 1.6600. Overall however the price action was typically lackluster in front of the marquee event of the week especially with little other econ data on the global calendar.
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• NFP Preview - How Does the Data Stack Up?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/6/2009 2:54:04 AM ET
  Today’s NFP report due at 13:30 GMT is the marquee event risk of the week in the currency market as traders try to assess the sustainability of the global recovery trade going forward. The US economy remains a laggard amongst the G-3 as job losses have continued to mount. In Eurozone for example German unemployment declined for the fourth consecutive month indicating a marked improvement in labor demand. Even in export driven Japan which has been particularly hard hit by the global recession the unemployment rate improved dramatically in October to 5.3% from a record high of 5.7% set two months prior.
  2 comments
• Update: GBP/CHF To Face Test At 1.7069.
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/5/2009 6:46:46 PM ET
  A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the GBP/CHF.
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• ECB - No More Limitless Liquidity
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/5/2009 9:35:08 AM ET
  The EUR/USD spiked through the 1.4900 figure after ECB President Jean Claude Trichet stated that some extraordinary monetary measures will be curtailed in a orderly fashion as credit conditions in the Eurozone begin to return to normal. The slightly more hawkish stance of the ECB chief surprised the market which expected only a repeat of the same rhetoric Mr. Trichet offered for the past several months.
  2 comments
• Sterling Spikes As BoE Tempers QE - But More To Come?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/5/2009 7:28:22 AM ET
  Bank of England kept its overnight rate at 0.5% but made a Solomonic comprise vis a vis its quantitative easing policy by raising the program by an additional 25 Billion pounds versus the 50 Billion pounds expected by many analysts. The program of asset purchase now totals 200 Billion pounds and the BoE noted that the scale of the program will be “kept under review.”
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• Will Euro and Pound Diverge In Post Announcement Trade?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/5/2009 5:35:14 AM ET
  A quiet, sluggish night of trade in Asia and early Europe as currency markets awaited the BoE and ECB rate announcements and risk FX remained in a tight range ahead of those events. UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production data surprised to the upside and helped lift the pound to 1.6550 but traders remained wary of the MPC risk due at 12:00 GMT.
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• AUD/JPY Near Short Opportunity at 83.37
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/4/2009 7:15:47 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern has nearly completed on the AUD/JPY.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Fed Sets Up the NFP
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/4/2009 4:34:01 PM ET
  The Feds decision to reaffirm its interest in keeping rates exceptionally low was received well by the currency markets. The dollar was left to face the brunt of the decision, losing out against all majors except for the Japanese yen. The greenback declined the most against the euro in about two months by 1.03 percent, even as stocks posed a late-day retreat. Furthermore, the pound was a big gainer as traders seem to be finding more promise behind the ECB and BoE rate decisions for tomorrow. Each of the commodity dollars took their share from the dollar’s fall. The end of the Fed decision has set up the Non-Farm Payroll report for later this week, which will be a critical factor in keeping the risk trade afloat.
  3 comments