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COMMENTARY

• USD Up on Safe Haven Bid as Portugal CDS Price in Major Default Risk
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/30/2012 9:27:27 AM ET
  With 10 year Portuguese bond yields above 15.5 percent and Italian yields above 6 percent, the EUR/USD's five day winning streak has come to an end. Euro
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• EUR/USD Under Pressure as Greek Deal Elusive
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/30/2012 4:32:42 AM ET
  Risk FX was under pressure as trading opened for the week as the deal between Greece and private sector investors failed to materialize over the weekend. The EUR/USD slid to a low of 1.3130 from a closing high of 1.3225 on Friday while Aussie drifted all the way to 1.0535 from 1.0650 as European equities declined by more than -1%.
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• Euro Weaker as Week Opens
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/30/2012 3:56:45 AM ET
  The euro was lower in Asia at the start of week’s trade as the disappointment over the lack of a definitive deal between Greece and private sector investors caused the currency to slide to 1.3140 from its Friday’s close of 1.3225. Although the reports over the weekend suggested that the two parties were close - agreeing on a 60% haircut and a coupon just below the 4% rate - no formal announcement has yet been made frustrating some market players who had been expecting a deal to be concluded.
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• AUD/CHF to Resume Uptrend at 0.9654?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/27/2012 6:44:10 PM ET
  A bullish butterfly pattern is currently forming on the AUD/CHF.
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• EUR: What To Expect From EU Summit
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/27/2012 4:56:57 PM ET
  European leaders will be gathering in Brussels on Monday for this year’s first EU Summit. As usual there has been a lot of pomp and circumstance surrounding the meeting with investors wondering if any major decisions will be made on providing a wider safety net for the region.
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• Disappointing US Data Triggers Turn in Equities and Currencies
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/27/2012 9:07:29 AM ET
  Earlier this week the Federal Reserve planted the kiss of the death on the U.S. dollar and this morning we continue to see the lingering effects of their ultra-easy monetary policy. Although no one expected the central bank to turn
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• Euro Rallies on Hopes that Greek Deal Close
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/27/2012 5:45:53 AM ET
  With no economic data on the calendar, currency traders focused on Davos where EU commissioner for monetary affairs Ollie Rehn stated that Greek government and private investors were very close to an agreement on the restructuring of Greek debt. The comment helped fuel a small rally in EUR/USD lifting the pair to a high of 1.3150 in midmorning European trade.
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• Will EUR/CHF Test Its Peg?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/27/2012 4:13:21 AM ET
  On a very quiet night in the currency market with very little data on the economic calendar attention has shifted to EUR/CHF which has been steadily drifting lower since the start of the year coming dangerously close to the 1.2000 peg set by the SNB. Yesterday the pair came with a few pips of the 1.2050 level - its lowest reading since the central bank intervention last September.
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• Review: Probabilities in Trading
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/26/2012 8:05:41 PM ET
  Why it is important to look at trading in terms of probabilities rather than absolutes.
  1 comment
• FX: And The Strength Begins To Fade
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/26/2012 4:10:11 PM ET
  The Federal Reserve’s commitment to easy monetary policy kept the U.S. dollar under pressure throughout the European and North American trading sessions. Not only did the greenback end the day unchanged or lower against all of the major currencies but it also fell to a fresh one month low against the euro, British pound and Swiss Franc and a two month low against the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars intraday.
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• FX: Currencies Extend Gains Courtesy of US Data
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/26/2012 10:09:26 AM ET
  Decent to mixed economic data from the U.S. along with the Federal Reserve's commitment to a long period of easy monetary policy has shifted the mood in the financial markets, propelling currencies and equities higher.
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• Euro Hits Yearly Highs on Prospect of Greek Deal
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/26/2012 5:23:22 AM ET
  Euro soared to fresh yearly highs in mid-morning European trade today after a report by a Greek newspaper suggested that private creditors accepted a lower interest rate in the Greek debt deal. The local newspaper Ethnos stated that PSI investors were willing accept a coupon of less than 4% lifting a key barrier towards an agreement that would allow Greece to restructure its debt. The country faces a 14 Billion euro payment in March which it cannot meet without the help of bailout from EU and the IMF.
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• German Consumer Sentiment Remains Resilient
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/26/2012 2:40:03 AM ET
  In a further sign that Europe largest economy is beginning to stage a recovery, GFK German consumer sentiment for February rose to 5.9% from median estimate of 5.6% while the estimate for January has been revised upward to 5.7%. Economic expectations turned positive to 7.5 from -0.9 the month prior, income expectations rose slightly to 34.1 from 34.0 and buying propensity surged to 41.8 points from 27.4 points hitting its highest level in 5 years.
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• Will EUR/GBP Resume Downtrend at 0.8405?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/25/2012 8:22:20 PM ET
  A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the EUR/GBP.
  3 comments
• Currency Outlook Post FOMC and Bernanke
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/25/2012 5:20:31 PM ET
  Thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, we have enjoyed a very nice rally in currencies and equities. The central bank pledged to keep monetary policy highly accommodative for the next 2 to 3 years and interest rates to remain at extremely low levels until late 2014.
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