COMMENTARY

• Who Benefits From Yuan Revaluation?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/8/2010 5:29:14 AM ET
  The euro rallied steadily towards the 1.3700 level in the wake of the strong support for Greece expressed by French President Nicholas Sarkozy over the weekend and a raft of fresh proposals by European policy makers to create new pan-European institutions to better deal with the fiscal financing problems facing the region. Amongst some of the ideas being floated by member states are; the creation of European version of the IMF, a pan European debt agency that and a ratings agency that would manage debt on a regional rather than national basis.
  14 comments
• Euro Rallies as Pan-European Proposals Emerge
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/8/2010 3:09:21 AM ET
  Greek Central Bank Governor George Provopoulos in an interview to FT Deutschland stated that Greece would be able to raise funds it needed to finance its deficit given the strength of last week’s 10 year Greek government bond auction. He also expressed confidence that financing costs would decline in the future and noted that he does not expect any further ratings downgrades from the agencies.
  4 comments
• Creating a trading plan
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/5/2010 5:59:40 PM ET
  We will go over the basic steps and requirement for creating a complete trading plan.
  8 comments
• Dollar Bulls Are Looking Beyond Feb Payrolls
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/5/2010 5:07:07 PM ET
  Thanks to the better than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report, the sun is shining brightly on the financial markets. Equities rose to their highest levels in more than a month while the dollar saw its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen since early December. The improvement in risk appetite helped to drive currency traders out of the safety of U.S. dollars and back into higher yielding and riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Forex traders even bought euros and sterlings despite problems in the hopes that a stronger U.S. recovery will reduce risk in the rest of the world. Whether the U.S. is able to live up to this tall task remains to be seen but at minimum, the better than expected non-farm payrolls report will make U.S. investors more optimistic and help to sustain risk appetite in the forex market.
  10 comments
• Dollar Soars as Blizzard Does No Damage to Payrolls
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/5/2010 8:57:21 AM ET
  Non-farm payrolls fell by only 36k in February sending the U.S. dollar into the stratosphere. With economists looking for job losses to swell by as much as -150k, the smaller decline turned out to be very positive.
  1 comment
• Euro Steady Ahead of NFP, Concerns Linger
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/5/2010 5:06:15 AM ET
  A typically quiet pre NFP night of trade with very little event risk on the calendar out of Europe. The UK PPI data was largely in line with expectations while in the Eurozone the focus remained on Greece as the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was scheduled to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
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• Yen's Fate Depends on US Data
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/5/2010 3:51:42 AM ET
  Dollar strengthened against the yen on reports that Bank of Japan may increase its quantitative easing program in April from the current level of 10 Trillion yen. Japan’s three month Libor rates dipped below the US equivalent prompting a further rally in USD/JPY to 89.40.
  3 comments
• AUD/JPY to Resume Downtrend at 81.33
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 3/4/2010 7:36:33 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the AUD/JPY.
  8 comments
• What USD Strength Says About Payrolls
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/4/2010 4:50:50 PM ET
  The U.S. dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The strength of the dollar reflects the market’s relief that any increase in job losses in February will be reversed in March. There has been a lot of chatter about how the two snowstorms in the Northeast may have caused job losses to explode last month. Based upon the price action in the dollar today, it would be reasonable to assume that forex traders will downplay tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. However traders tend to have short term memory which means there could still be a sharp reaction to a surprisingly weak or strong NFP number. The only difference is that the knee jerk reaction could be reversed quickly.
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• Risk Managment Guidlines
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 3/4/2010 2:32:34 PM ET
  Key money/risk management guidelines to help sustain profitability and control losses over the long haul....
  30 comments
• How Severe Could Job Losses be and will it Matter?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/4/2010 2:18:42 PM ET
  A recovery is not much of a recovery when there is no job growth and consumer spending. Friday’s labor market report is not expected to provide any encouragement for supporters of the U.S. recovery because job losses could accelerate. The improvements in the labor market have been uneven and we expect this trend to continue – the only difference is that this time we have Mr. Frosty to blame. Several snowstorms have hammered the Northeast, triggering temporary layoffs in weather sensitive construction and transportation industries. Some non-salaried employees may have also been taken off payrolls for not being able to get to work. Given the possibility of weather related distortions to the report, forex traders may not all that discouraged by a weak number unless job losses exceed 100k.
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• Dollar Rallies on the Relief that Mr. Frosty is to Blame
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 3/4/2010 10:12:32 AM ET
  The U.S. dollar is trading sharply higher against the euro and Japanese Yen ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
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• Trichet - Greece Should Solve Its Own Problems. Euro Weakens As Result
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/4/2010 9:52:26 AM ET
  The President of ECB Jean Claude Trichet offered strong support for the austerity measures taken by Greece but backed away from any formal attempts to help bailout the country’s finances and noted that the IMF would not be appropriate as a “supplier of help” to the Greek economy. Mr. Trichet’s emphasis on letting Greece work out its fiscal problems within the framework of the European union cast some doubt on resolution of the Greek conflict and EUR/USD weakened marginally in the wake of his remarks.
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• BoE Holds Still - Pound Rallies
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/4/2010 7:16:56 AM ET
  As expected the BOE kept its benchmark rates steady at 50bp and did not expand its asset purchasing program. The BOE maintained its QE program at 200 Billion pounds for the second month in a row as UK monetary authorities decided that the current level of monetary stimulus was enough for the UK economy.
  0 comments
• Euro Consolidates Ahead of ECB - Will Trichet Offer Support?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 3/4/2010 4:36:09 AM ET
  A bit of profit taking in risk FX in both Asian and early European trade today after a sharp short covering rally pushed all the high beta currencies higher against the greenback yesterday. The sell off was most predominant in Asian trade as Shanghai stocks slipped more than -2% on fears of further tightening of credit and precipitated a risk aversion move in currencies that saw EUR/USD tumble to 1.3650 . USD/JPY declined to within striking distance of the 88.00 handle as yen continues to benefit from both repatriation flows and further pressure from EUR/JPY sales.
  2 comments