COMMENTARY

• Aussie Remains the Strongest Bet on Recovery
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/12/2009 3:56:39 AM ET
  Australian employment data surprised to the upside printing positive for the second month in a row as job increased by 24.5K against expectations of -10.1K drop. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.8% from 5.7% in September but has essentially remained steady at these levels for more than 6 months.
  6 comments
• EUR/GBP to Face Test at 0.9061?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/11/2009 7:05:15 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley/double top is forming on the EUR/GBP.
  11 comments
• How Does Dollar Stack Up Historically?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/11/2009 5:26:42 PM ET
  Even though it has been another quiet day in the foreign exchange market, the sharp intraday reversal of the U.S. dollar has caught the eye of many currency traders. After falling within a whisker of its 15 month low against the euro, the dollar changed course and rose aggressively against most of the major currencies, turning profits into losses. The currency that dropped the most against the dollar was the British pound and the only currency that managed to hold onto its gains was the Canadian dollar. No major U.S. economic data was released and equity markets closed in positive territory. The latest pieces of economic data from China were strong with industrial production rising more than expected. This means that there is no “fundamental” reason for why the dollar has recovered. Instead the most practical reason is simply profit taking around key levels. The 1.50 mark has been a tough barrier for the EUR/USD to break and so far, it has not been able to close above that level in more than 2 weeks.
  0 comments
• Solid Short-Term GBP/JPY Buy Emerging...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/11/2009 1:50:58 PM ET
  The GBP/JPY is showing significant near-term support (and a solid buying opportunity) if prices dip to 147.80 based on an emerging...
  0 comments
• Why the Dollar Could Fall Another 5-7 Percent
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/11/2009 10:01:52 AM ET
  As the U.S. dollar continues to press lower against the euro and Australian dollar (the AUD/USD rose to a 15 month high) and U.S. stocks reach new highs, many traders may be wondering how much further can the greenback fall. So far this year, the Euro has appreciated 7.50 percent against the dollar while the Aussie appreciated 32.5 percent
  5 comments
• Will Pound Bounce Despite King's Wishes?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/11/2009 6:13:32 AM ET
  Cable tumbled more than 150 points in the aftermath of the BOE quarterly inflation report and press conference comments from BOE Governor Mervyn King that noted recent weakness in sterling was a welcome sign for an export led rebound. Despite recent evidence of economic recovery the language of the quarterly inflation report remained unabashedly dovish leaving the door open for further QE measures if necessary.
  0 comments
• Risk Trade Keeps EUR/USD Above 1.5000
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/11/2009 5:42:27 AM ET
  The risk trade was on in full force in overnight trade as high beta FX rose steadily in Asian and early European session in the wake of strong data from China and better employment results from UK. Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers all beat expectations suggesting that the Asia giant remains the locomotive of the global recovery trade.
  5 comments
• GBP/JPY Could Face Support at 148.03
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/10/2009 7:29:41 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/JPY.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: 2 Extreme Cases
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/10/2009 4:36:19 PM ET
  Profit taking across the financial markets helped to lift the U.S. dollar against nearly all of the major currencies. The lack of market moving economic data and Veteran’s Day in the U.S. has led to very quiet trading. Stocks for example ended the U.S. trading session virtually unchanged while none of the major currency pairs saw a move in excess of 0.5 percent. Compared to the 1.5 to 2 percent moves on Monday, the drop in volatility is reflective of the consolidation in the forex market following the big events last week and the outcome of the G20 meeting. Although many instruments are hovering near significant levels such as 1.50 in the EUR/USD, 1100 in the S&P, $80 in oil and $1100 in gold, nothing has changed to alter the downtrend in the U.S. dollar. These contention levels are certainly important but given last week’s disappointing labor market report and the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep monetary stimulus in place for the foreseeable future, there is little reason for traders to pile back into U.S. dollars. Although the biggest story in the currency market today was the announcement from ratings agency Fitch that of the 4 large AAA rated countries, the U.K. is the closest to being downgraded, the British pound was not the biggest mover. Instead the Canadian dollar rose to the strongest level in 2 weeks on little news.
  1 comment
• Increase Your Odds: A Basic Technical Approach
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/10/2009 2:12:50 PM ET
  These basic formations are rather helpful ways of confirming other market reversal indicators such as the geometric, Fibonacci-based patterns we primarily use to identify technical trading opportunities here at FX360....
  32 comments
• U.S. Confidence and Fed Speeches
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/10/2009 10:16:28 AM ET
  After Monday's aggressive sell-off, the U.S. dollar recovered a small and barely significant portion of yesterday's losses. This lack of volatility is not surprising considering that the economic calendar is relatively quiet with only the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index due for release today. However 5 Fed officials will be speaking with a number of them talking specifically about the economic outlook which could affect the markets.
  2 comments
• Can Euro Rise Beyond 1.5000?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/10/2009 5:36:59 AM ET
  Risk currencies ran into a wall of disappointing data along with unexpected comments from Fitch ratings regarding UK debt causing the dollar to strengthen slightly in early morning European session. Fitch noted that UK was the most vulnerable of the G-4 economies to a ratings downgrade given its perilous fiscal position and those comments sent sterling tumbling nearly 200 points in late Asian trade before the unit finally stabilized. EUR/USD also had trouble gaining any traction stalling at 1.5000 level after a mixed ZEW report
  0 comments
• Is Pound Vulnerable to a Sell Off?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/10/2009 3:56:20 AM ET
  Pound dropped nearly 200 points in late Asian trade today after an official from Fitch Ratings stated that UK was the most likely of major economies to lose its AAA status. David Riley, co-head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said if there was another significant fiscal stimulus package in Britain its rating would be at risk.
  0 comments
• Trading Psychology- Recency Bias
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/9/2009 8:01:42 PM ET
  What is recency bias, and how can it negatively impact your trading results?
  6 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Key Levels
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/9/2009 5:21:14 PM ET
  The weakness of the U.S. dollar was one of the leading stories in the financial markets today as the trade weighted dollar index fell to a 15 month low. Every single major currency except for the Japanese Yen strengthened against the greenback, recovering all of Friday’s losses.
  2 comments