COMMENTARY

• NZD/CAD Approaching Short Opportunity at 0.7942
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/16/2009 7:32:34 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/CAD.
  0 comments
• Dollar Bears Ignore Bernanke, Takes Buck to 15 Month Lows
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/16/2009 4:46:49 PM ET
  Leave it to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to give currency traders some excitement. For most of the European trading session and into the early U.S. session the dollar quietly grinded lower against the major currencies. Weaker economic data failed to trigger any major move in the dollar but when Bernanke said the Fed will use policy to “ensure that the dollar is strong,” the greenback recovered dramatically. However the gains were short lived once traders realized that Bernanke’s pessimistic outlook for the economy was inconsistent with a strong currency. The selling exacerbated when Federal Reserve President Fisher spoke and ultimately drove the dollar index to 15 month lows. As a consequence, gold prices hit record highs and oil prices rose more than 3 percent. U.S. stocks also hovered at 13 month highs for most of trading session. The dollar dropped the most against the British pound and the least against the Australian dollar which suggests that the GBP/USD may be making up for lost time.
  3 comments
• Bernanke Throws Support Behind U.S. Dollar
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/16/2009 12:44:36 PM ET
  The U.S. dollar rallied against the euro rallied on the heels of Ben Bernanke's comments as the Fed Chairman pledges to use Fed policy to "ensure that the dollar is strong."
  5 comments
• A Mathematical Approach to Eliminating Emotions
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/16/2009 12:26:38 PM ET
  How to earn a positive return without winning most, or even a majority, of your trades...
  8 comments
• Dollar Hit by Retail Sales and Empire State
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/16/2009 8:51:40 AM ET
  Weakness beneath the headlines is the story behind this morning's U.S. economic reports and the reason why the dollar is not responding to the pick up in consumer spending. Retail sales increased 1.4 percent in the month of October, but excluding autos, sales grew by only 0.2 percent, half the pace of the previous month.
  8 comments
• Yen Gain on Better GDP - 89.00 in Sight?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/16/2009 4:35:40 AM ET
  Risk FX rose in Asian dealing on the first trading day of the week, buttressed by commitment to fiscal stimulus from the APEC meeting and much better than expected Japanese GDP numbers indicating that the global recovery continues to expand across the G-10 universe. The APEC members agreed that it was too early to remove fiscal stimulus recognizing the fact that the global recovery remains fragile for now.
  1 comment
• EUR/CHF To Resume Uptrend At 1.5056?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/13/2009 7:01:32 PM ET
  A bullish butterfly patter is forming on the EUR/CHF.
  6 comments
• Forex: What Could Kill The Rally?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/13/2009 4:47:17 PM ET
  Based upon recent price action there are signs of exhaustion in the currency and equity markets as the 1.50 level in the EUR/USD and 1100 level in the S&P 500 appear to be insurmountable barriers. However with little U.S. economic data on the calendar this past week, traders had few reasons to press the dollar to new lows. Instead, most of the currency pairs consolidated with some profit taking seen on dollar short positions. Yet dollars bears have not given up as indicated by the lower close on Friday. All of that could change next week as the economic calendar heats up with a tremendous amount of data from across the globe and speeches by Fed officials. The major currency pairs are prime for a breakout and there is certainly sufficient catalyst to trigger one. The only question is, will these event risks kill the rally or pave the way for more gains.
  3 comments
• U.S. and Canadian Trade Don't Balance
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/13/2009 8:52:04 AM ET
  U.S. and Canadian trade numbers were released this morning and to the surprise of dollar bulls, the U.S. trade deficit jumped 18 percent to $36.5B in September, the widest gap since the beginning of the year. Canada on the other hand reported very strong trade numbers with their deficit falling by more than 50 percent in the same month. For the 2 countries sharing the same border, things could not be any more different.
  2 comments
• Has Euro Topped at 1.5000?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/13/2009 5:52:53 AM ET
  Risk FX staged a short covering rally at the start of early morning European trade today, but the move stalled in the wake of weaker than expected EZ GDP data for Q3. EZ GDP printed at 0.4% vs. 0.6% eyed while German GDP data came in at 0.7% vs. 0.8% forecast. This was the first positive growth for the region this year reversing five straight quarters of contraction.
  1 comment
• Will China Revalue The Yuan?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/13/2009 5:05:31 AM ET
  The pressure on China to revaluate the yuan continued at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting today after yesterday statement by the region’s finance ministers noted that, "We will undertake monetary policies consistent with price stability in the context of market-oriented exchange rates that reflect underlying economic fundamentals."
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: All Eyes On Asia
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/12/2009 5:15:31 PM ET
  Profit taking has been the name of the game in the currency market for the past week. With only jobless claims on the calendar today, the U.S. dollar extended its gains against nearly of the major currencies. The biggest loser was the Canadian dollar which staged a sharp rally on Wednesday for no particular reason. The most resilient currency was the British pound which actually managed to strengthen against the dollar. The turn in the U.S. stock market exacerbated the rally in the greenback by triggering concerns about risk aversion. However we want to point out that today’s move is a story about the dollar and not risk appetite because if that was the case, USD/JPY would be trading lower.
  3 comments
• New Trade Alert: EUR/USD In Play
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/12/2009 3:32:23 PM ET
  A rather unique EUR/USD opportunity is at hand...
  26 comments
• U.S. Jobless Claims Improve but Don't Get Too Excited
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/12/2009 9:04:58 AM ET
  According to the latest jobless claims number, the U.S. labor market continues to improve. However the pace of improvement is sluggish at best and reflects the slow turn in the U.S. economy. Weekly jobless claims rose by 502k, down from 514k the previous week while continuing claims dropped from 5.77M to 5.63M.
  10 comments
• Is Risk FX Ready For a Correction?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/12/2009 5:29:29 AM ET
  A slow drift downward in risk FX tonight despite better employment numbers out of Australia as profit taking and weaker equity price action in both Asia and Europe weighed on the flows. In Australia the employment data once again blew out expectations printing at 24.5K versus projections of a -10.K loss. This was the second month in a row of positive job growth reaffirming the fact that the economy Down Under continues to be the strongest amongst the G-20 set.
  1 comment