COMMENTARY

• Chinese Manufacturing Sparks a Rally in Risk FX
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/4/2010 4:16:38 AM ET
  Manufacturing data from Asia Pacific offered a mixed batch of results on the first full trading day of the new year with Australian numbers disappointing but Chinese PMI readings hitting all time highs. The Australian AIG Manufacturing Index printed at 48.5 versus 51.2 the period prior – its first decline in 4 months and the first time below the key 50 boom/bust line since August of 2009. The news suggests that the ultra hot Aussie economy, which has been the best performer in the G-20 universe may be beginning to cool off, although it is far too early to draw any definitive conclusions given the strength of activity in the rest of the region.
  0 comments
• How Could the Dollar Trade in 2010?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/1/2010 9:42:01 AM ET
  It is officially a New Year, a New Decade and we want to wish everyone the greatest success! As we look forward to 2010, many people may be wondering if the dollar will continue to strengthen. Before attempting to address this question, it is important to recognize that much of the weakness in the U.S. dollar over the past year has been triggered by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to record lows. The primary reason for the latest strength in the dollar is also rooted in the belief that the U.S. recovery is accelerating and therefore the Fed could implement their exit strategies and raise interest rates earlier than previously anticipated. Based upon Fed fund futures, the market is currently pricing in a rate hike by the U.S. central bank in the second half of the year. There is currently a 57 percent chance of a rate hike at the June meeting followed by an 80 percent chance of a hike in August.
  8 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Bye Bye 2009
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/31/2009 6:14:31 PM ET
  Within a few hours, we will be ringing in a New Year and a New Decade. Although stocks ended the last trading day of 2009 in negative territory, the dollar was mixed, extending its gains against the Japanese Yen and the euro but losing ground against the British pound.
  4 comments
• Trading Psychology- Recency Bias
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/31/2009 6:07:01 PM ET
  What is recency bias, and how can it negatively impact your trading results?
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• Which Currency Pairs Perform the Best in the Month of January?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/31/2009 7:42:33 AM ET
  With New Years Eve looming, it has been another quiet morning in the currency markets. Jobless claims are the only pieces of noteworthy U.S. economic data due for release and given that most traders are more focused on ironing out their New Year plans than banking some yearend profits, claims will only have a limited impact on the forex markets. As we turn the calendar to January 2010, we want to take this opportunity to talk about one of our favorite topics – seasonality.
  13 comments
• Update: GBP/JPY Short Opportunity at 148.92
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/30/2009 8:05:47 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley/double has completed on the GBP/JPY.
  23 comments
• Keeping Tabs On the Dollar
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/30/2009 2:59:02 PM ET
  In low liquidity trading environments it is very common to see a mixed performance in the currency market. With one more day to go before the end of the year, the dollar traded higher against the Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar, was unchanged against the Euro and weakened against the British pound, Franc, Australian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar. Chicago PMI was the only piece of U.S. economic data released this morning and the strong report helped the dollar spur early gains. However, midday saw a sharp selloff in the greenback when it was reported that the Nasdaq offices in Times Square had to be evacuated because a suspicious vehicle was parked out front. The dollar has since been unable to regain its earlier strength.
  4 comments
• Dollar Lifted by Solid Chicago PMI Report
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/30/2009 10:00:23 AM ET
  The sell-off in global equities helped to drive the dollar higher against all of the major currencies this morning and the momentum in the greenback was further fueled by the much stronger than expected Chicago PMI report.
  7 comments
• GBP/NZD Long Opportunity at 2.1800
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/29/2009 7:48:19 PM ET
  A bullish butterfly pattern is forming on the GBP/NZD.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Low Liquidity Swings
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/29/2009 5:21:58 PM ET
  The lack of liquidity in the financial markets this week finally triggered low volume breakouts in the foreign exchange market. The Australian and New Zealand dollars for example strengthened dramatically against the greenback despite the lack of any Australian or New Zealand economic data. The euro ended the day only marginally weaker against the dollar, but the 0.2 percent decline masks significant intraday volatility.
  2 comments
• NZD/JPY Trade Update, EUR/AUD Review...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 12/29/2009 12:56:13 PM ET
  Prices have now finally broken through 65.00 resistance, as a NZD/JPY sell opportunity approaches...
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• Confidence and House Prices Provide No Threats to Dollar
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/29/2009 10:22:48 AM ET
  As we head into the end of the year, the U.S. dollar continued to give up some its recent gains. By now, most corporations, hedge funds and institutional investors have already closed their books and the few remaining market participants are mostly interested in selling dollars and repatriating their funds to window dress their balance sheets.
  2 comments
• GBP/JPY Approaching Short Opportunity at 148.92
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/28/2009 8:12:21 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley/double top is forming on the GBP/JPY.
  9 comments
• Dollar: Counting on Confidence
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/28/2009 5:19:40 PM ET
  The foreign exchange markets are traditionally very quiet the Monday after Christmas because it is a bank and public holiday in the U.K., Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Germany and New Zealand. The lack of London traders is particularly significant because roughly 34 percent of the $3.98 trillion in daily turnover occurs in London. Although the U.S. and Tokyo markets are open today, volume is particularly light because most traders are still on vacation. Yet this did not stop equity traders from driving all 3 indices (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500) to year to date highs. In response, the dollar sold off against every major currency except for the Japanese Yen.
  10 comments
• Forex: Which Currency Pairs Have the Widest Trading Ranges?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/28/2009 10:50:48 AM ET
  With many markets around the world closed for Boxing Day, trading has been extremely quiet. Aside from the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report, which strengthened in the month of December, there have been no other economic releases on the calendar. Equities hit a new yearly high this morning on news that retail sales have been better than expected this holiday season but the gains are fading quickly.
  5 comments