COMMENTARY

• Greece Continues to Weigh on Euro
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/19/2010 4:30:33 AM ET
  Greece continued to be the focus of attention at the Eurofin finance ministers meeting in Brussels as officials grappled with an array of policy choices to solve Greece’s mounting fiscal problems. Although the country has pledged to assume tough austerity measures to control its widening deficit, there is growing doubt that Greece can tackle these issues alone given the spotty accounting of its finances.
  15 comments
• Update: EUR/JPY Opportunity to Buy at 130.11
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/18/2010 8:48:41 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern has completed on the EUR/JPY 4hr Chart.
  20 comments
• Forex: Where Do Central Banks Stand?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/18/2010 4:34:30 PM ET
  It has been an extremely quiet day in the foreign exchange markets and in the words of my colleague Boris Schlossberg, it feels like a Sunday. Even though U.S. markets were the only ones closed for trading today, the absence of U.S. traders and U.S. equities as a guide for the dollar was certainly felt across the globe.
  4 comments
• Critical AUD/NZD Resistance Near 1.27...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 1/18/2010 2:43:12 PM ET
  A potential AUD/NZD selling opportunity may present itself this week as we have an emerging ...
  0 comments
• BoC Preview: Cautionary Comments Could Help USD/CAD
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/18/2010 9:42:19 AM ET
  It is a holiday here in the U.S. which means that the equity markets are closed for Martin Luther King's Day. As a result, it should be a quiet trading day in the forex markets.
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• Cable Leads the Pack as Week Begins
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/18/2010 4:49:30 AM ET
  A predictably quiet start to the trading week with European calendar barren of any data and US capital markets closed today for Martin Luther King holiday. Most of the majors have been trapped in miniscule 30 point ranges as dealers are happy to provide two way trade with little external news affecting flows.
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• Does Positioning Data Suggest A Dollar Rally?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/18/2010 3:13:18 AM ET
  According to the latest CFCT Commitment of traders data short positions in the US dollar increased by factor of six last week to 67,500 rising to their highest level in a month. The positioning suggests that speculators are anticipating further dollar weakness in the week ahead, but their short bias may be subject to a squeeze if risk aversion flows reappear.
  13 comments
• EUR/JPY Opportunity to Buy at 130.11
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/15/2010 7:38:25 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the EUR/JPY 4hr Chart.
  15 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Curb Your Optimism
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/15/2010 5:05:08 PM ET
  It has been quite a while since we have seen a sea of red in the forex markets, with nearly all of the major currency pairs ending the day in negative territory. The dollar strengthened against everything except for the Japanese Yen which only confirms that risk aversion is driving the flows in the forex market today.
  2 comments
• Forex Markets Hit by Risk Aversion after More Disappointing U.S. Data
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/15/2010 10:24:41 AM ET
  Risk aversion has finally hit the forex markets following another round of weaker U.S. economic data. The dollar sold off against the Yen but rallied against higher yielding currencies as there are only so many disappointments the market can take before the optimism fades.
  8 comments
• Euro Lower, Yen Higher As Risk Aversion Rises
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/15/2010 5:28:19 AM ET
  The EUR/USD tumbled nearly 140 points in early morning European trade after rumors regarding the possible resignation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel swept through the currency market. The German government immediately denied the speculation but the pair already weakened by a relatively dovish monetary commentary from ECB chief Jean Claude Trichet tripped a slew of stops before finally stabilizing at the 1.4400 level.
  0 comments
• Euro Tumbles on Rumors that Merkel May Resign
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/15/2010 4:00:38 AM ET
  Euro tumbled through both 1.4500 and 1.4400 levels in early morning European trade on speculation that German Chancellor Angel Merkel was about to resign. The German government immediately denied the rumors, but the pair remained under heavy pressure as fear about political turmoil and uncertainly in Europe’s largest economy swept through the currency market.
  3 comments
• Update: GBP/NZD Long Opportunity at 2.1800
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/14/2010 9:34:56 PM ET
  A bullish butterfly pattern has completed on the GBP/NZD and we must update our exits.
  9 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Retail Sales Could Provide Hope
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/14/2010 5:26:01 PM ET
  Given the big surprise in the U.S. retail sales report, we would have expected a more dramatic reaction in the U.S. dollar. The greenback sold off against the most of the major currencies but still managed to end the day higher against the euro and Swiss Franc. Whenever it comes to trading U.S. data, the most logical reaction to the economic report tends to be in USD/JPY and today was no exception. Thirty minutes after the retail sales report was released, USD/JPY fell over 60 pips and by noontime in NY and the London close, the currency pair was down close to 100 pips from its prerelease levels. The reaction in the EUR/USD on the other hand was rather muted considering that ECB President Trichet delivered his press conference minutes after the number. Cautious comments from the central bank head tempered the slide in the dollar and left the EUR/USD basically unchanged on the day. There has been a lot of confusion about how consumer spending could have been so weak when everyone was reporting strong holiday sales. However unless there is a logical explanation that suggests that the drop off in spending was distorted, there should be a lasting impact on the dollar.
  4 comments
• ECB Unlikely to Raise Rates in 2010
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/14/2010 9:42:57 AM ET
  ECB chief Jean Claude Trichet gave a generally subdued assessment of growth prospects in the Eurozone suggesting that economic activity in the 16 member union will be uneven and subject to possible downside risks. He even entertained the notion of a negative quarter this but noted that on balance the growth for 2010 a whole is projected to be mildly positive.
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