COMMENTARY

• When Is A Good Time To Buy Euros?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/1/2010 4:54:00 PM ET
  The euro finally snapped a 4 day losing streak thanks to an improvement in risk appetite and upward revisions to Eurozone economic data. Manufacturing activity across the region was slightly stronger than originally reported and we believe that the recent slide in the euro will lend even greater support to the economy. The reason why we have not heard a peep from European policy makers about the rapid decline in the euro is because having a weak currency has more advantages than disadvantages in this current market environment.
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• AUD: What to Expect from the RBA
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/1/2010 3:22:05 PM ET
  Over the past few weeks, the Australian dollar has fallen victim to the same pressures as the other high yielding currencies. Risk aversion along with demand for U.S. dollars has pushed the AUD/USD below 90 cents. However on the eve of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary decision, currency traders are buying Aussies on the hope that the RBA will increase interest rates once again. A rate hike is pretty much a done deal and if the RBA fails to deliver, they stand the risk of triggering a very sharp sell-off in the Australian dollar
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• GBP/USD Trade Alert: Bearish Below 1.5950
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 2/1/2010 11:51:30 AM ET
  A new, short-term GBP/USD trade is in progress as the price action is correlating nicely with today’s Foresight A.I. timing/trend forecast....
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• Dollar Rallies on Strong ISM Data and Obama's Revised GDP Forecast
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/1/2010 10:17:59 AM ET
  Welcome to a big week in the forex markets with 3 central bank rate decisions and employment reports from the U.S. and Canada due for release
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• Pound Pummeled as Fiscal Worries Trump Data
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/1/2010 5:39:23 AM ET
  A relatively quiet start to the week in the FX market with pound showing the only noticeable weakness amongst the majors despite much better than expected UK Manufacturing PMI data. UK PMI printed at 56.7 versus 54.1 as the weaker sterling helped the gauge to register its best reading in more than 15 years, but cable barely reacted to the report as concerns over the fiscal problems in the UK budget overwhelmed any positive economic news.
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• Chinese Manufacturing Slows - Will West Pick Up The Slack?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/1/2010 2:08:54 AM ET
  Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed a tad lower than expectations at 55.8 versus 56.6 eyed but analysts were uncertain whether the slowdown in output was due to a moderation in economic activity or disruptions caused unusually cold weather conditions in January. In either case the PMI report registered its second best reading in 21 months indicating that growth in Chinese manufacturing remains robust with demand well above the 50 boom/bust line.
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• Good Time To Be A Dollar Bull
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/29/2010 5:12:42 PM ET
  It’s a good time to be a dollar bull because over the past two months, the dollar has strengthened dramatically against all of the major currencies. In fact, none of the G10 currencies managed to outperform the dollar since the beginning of December. The currency that weakened the most against the greenback is the euro, which has fallen more than 8 percent. Surprisingly enough, the currency that has been the most resilient in the face of persistent dollar strength has been the Canadian dollar. This morning’s strong GDP, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment numbers helped to drive the dollar even higher with the dollar index hitting a 6 month. Currency pairs such as the EUR/USD fell to the lowest level since July 2009. Both good and bad news have been supportive of the dollar which most likely means that the trend will continue until traders have a good reason to stop buying dollars. The EUR/USD has broken a very key support level and a move below 1.38 is now possible.
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• Dollar Soars as U.S. GDP Blows Away Expectations
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/29/2010 8:53:15 AM ET
  The U.S. economy grew by 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, blowing away market expectations and sending the dollar sharply higher against the Japanese Yen.
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• Dollar Strength Depends on US GDP
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/29/2010 5:09:30 AM ET
  Risk FX made a round turn in early European trade after selling pressures in Asia sent EUR/USD to a fresh six month low. EUR/USD tumbled to 1.3912 in morning Tokyo dealing after Nikkei dropped more than -2% on weakness in the exporter sector, but the pair staged a recovery in Europe after EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia calmed fears regarding the fiscal problems of Greece.
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• Japanese Data Provides No Clear Direction for the Yen
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/29/2010 3:23:21 AM ET
  Japan produced a set of mixed economic data on the last trading nigh of the week showing that the world’s third ;largest economy continues to recover from the worst contraction in the post war era albeit an uneven pace. Japanese labor markets improved with the unemployment rate declining to 5.1% versus 5.3% eyed – recording their best reading since November of last year. Japanese labor conditions have improved consistently since August of last year when the unemployment rate hit a peak of 5.7%.
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• Update: EUR/GBP Forming Opportunity to Go Long at 0.8614
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/28/2010 6:58:45 PM ET
  Our EUR/GBP trade has completed and reached our first profit target. We have updated our stop and our second profit target.
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• U.S. Dollar: Will Growth Live Up To Expectations?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/28/2010 5:09:29 PM ET
  The U.S. dollar extended its gains as risk aversion continues to hang over the markets. The EUR/USD spent most of the North American trading session below the 1.40 level which reflects the overall weakness in the currency pair. Since U.S. equities have sold off and bond yields have fallen, it is clear that the rally in the dollar today is a reflection of fear and not optimism. Yet on a percentage basis, the rally in the dollar has been modest and further gains in the greenback will now be contingent upon Friday’s GDP report. This morning’s U.S. economic data failed to reinforce the credibility of the Federal Reserve. Durable goods orders fell short of expectations while any improvement in jobless claims is met with skepticism. Ben Bernanke was confirmed by the U.S. Senate for the second term so the uncertainty surrounding his nomination will now evaporate.
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• Dollar Hit by Smaller Rise in Orders for Durable Goods
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/28/2010 9:09:12 AM ET
  Another round of disappointing U.S. economic data has pushed the dollar sharply lower against the Japanese Yen and many of the other major currencies. Despite the Fed's optimism, if economic data does not improve, the central bank's credibility will come into question. The euro has not benefited from the sell-off in the dollar as concerns about Greece continue to weigh on the single currency. Last night, China suggested that they may not be interested in buying Greek debt, eliminating one of its the biggest potential investors.
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• Euro Recovers After Hitting Six Month Lows
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/28/2010 5:17:29 AM ET
  After a final flurry of risk aversion flows in early Asia trade that saw EUR/USD plummet to a six month low of 1.3930, risk currencies rebounded in the wake of a positively received State of the Union speech by President Obama that focused primarily on economic issues. President Obama stressed the need for Congress to pass the jobs bill, offered small businesses tax incentives to hire employees and promised to extend middle class tax cuts.
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• Obama's SOTU Address Spurs Rebound in Risk
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/28/2010 2:37:05 AM ET
  The EUR/USD dropped below the psychologically key 1.4000 figure in early Asian trade today hitting its lowest point in more than six months as it tripped stops all the way to 1.3930. The pair however managed to recover most of its losses in the wake of President Obama’s speech which proved friendly to risk assets. Risk FX staged a strong recovery with Aussie, cable and kiwi all following suit to the upside after President Obama focused on economic themes promising to extend middle class tax cuts, provide tax incentives for small business and urged Congress to finish work on the jobs bill “without delay”.
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