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COMMENTARY

• EUR/USD At a Standstill Despite Better Italian Auction
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/28/2011 5:55:30 AM ET
  Much better than expected results from Italian T-bill auctions failed to move the currency markets as risk FX remained moribund for most of Asian and early European trade in extremely quiet holiday trade. Although UK markets re-opened after a two day rest liquidity remained paper thin and currencies moved in very narrow ranges for most of the night.
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• GBP Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/28/2011 4:21:35 AM ET
  Typically, sterling is one of the more volatile majors, but in 2011, trading in the pair was considerably more subdued; the cable traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.55-1.65 as the euro and the Swiss franc commanded most of the market attention.
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• GBP/CHF to Resume Uptrend at 1.4542?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/27/2011 7:55:32 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/CHF.
  2 comments
• 2012 S&P 500 Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/27/2011 1:47:50 PM ET
  At the time of this writing (early December 2011), the S&P 500 is pretty much back to where it was at the start of the year. Yet, it has held up better than many other global indices. For comparison, the UK’s FTSE100 is down around 7%; German DAX has fallen14% while the Japanese Nikkei and China’s Shanghai Composite are down 15% and 18% respectively.
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• Euro Up On Short Covering in Post Holiday Trade
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/27/2011 4:44:06 AM ET
  A very quiet night in post holiday trade with UK markets remaining closed has left most majors in very narrow trading ranges treading water. Asian markets were down weighing on risk sentiment a bit with Shanghai index hitting a 33 month low while Nikkei was down 0.5%. The EUR/USD however remained at the upper end of its range trading near the 1.3070 level outperforming the rest of risk FX.
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• Euro Outlook 2012 – Do or Die?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/27/2011 3:22:55 AM ET
  Until recently, the notion of EUR/USD fracture was inconceivable to most market analysts who assumed that the breakup of the world’s largest integrated economic bloc was simply too complex and too destructive to consider seriously. However, the events of 2011, which saw the sovereign debt crisis spread from the periphery to the very core of Europe, radically changed market perception as the idea of the euro break up suddenly became a very real possibility.
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• What’s In Store for the US Dollar in 2012?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 12/26/2011 10:04:16 AM ET
  At the beginning of 2011, we were feeling the initial winds of recovery. Non-farm payrolls were on the rise, reaching a high of 235k in February as the U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 8.8 percent. Even retail sales rose 1.3 percent that month, leading most market strategists to believe that the worst of the Global Financial Crisis was really behind us.
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• Following the Plan
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/23/2011 6:02:10 PM ET
  Creating a trading plan is one thing; following it is another.
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• Weak US Data Sends Risk FX Lower
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/23/2011 9:10:25 AM ET
  US economic data printed weaker than expected prompting a selloff in risk FX at the start of North American on the final day of trade before a long holiday weekend. US Durable Goods rose by 3.8% versus 2.2% eyed on a headline basis but demand for business equipment ex-transport and military spending actually declined by -1.2% the biggest drop since the start of this year.
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• GBP/USD Slips as Eco Data Disappoints Ahead of Holiday
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/23/2011 5:28:54 AM ET
  A very quiet night of trade ahead of the long holiday weekend as an early EUR/USD rally ran out of steam near the 1.3100 and risk FX traded mildly lower as the session progressed. Currency markets continue to grapple with the question of whether the ECB LTRO will prove to be an effective tool for recycling capital into the region’s sovereign debt market or whether the banks will simply sit on the money to use for their short term financing needs. Today, shares of most of the Italian banks were lower on skepticism over the LTRO policy. We continue to believe that EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a run on the 1.3000 level as the market comes to a conclusion that the sovereign debt pressures will remain in place.
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• CHF/JPY Short Opportunity at 83.99
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/22/2011 7:53:51 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is emerging on the CHF/JPY.
  1 comment
• Risk FX Tumbles as US GDP Revised Lower
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/22/2011 9:12:14 AM ET
  Risk FX tumbled lower in early North American dealing after US GDP data for Q3 was revised lower to 1.8% from 2.0% initially forecast. The primary reason for the downward revision was the sharp decline in personal consumption expenditure which accounts for 70% of the US economy. Economists had projected an increase of 2.3% while actual figure came in at 1.7%.
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• Euro Sells Off on Rumor That France May Be Downgraded
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/22/2011 5:53:24 AM ET
  Risk currencies staged a small rebound in late Asian and early European trade but gave up most of their gain by mid-morning dealing as traders continued to digest the implications of yesterday’s massive near 500B EUR take up of the LTRO from the ECB. The EUR/USD rallied to rise above 1.3100 on demand from Middle East buyers but stalled at those levels and quickly reversed the move to trade at 1.3065 on a unconfirmed speculation that France may be downgraded.
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• Creating a trading plan
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/21/2011 9:04:25 PM ET
  We will go over the basic steps and requirement for creating a complete trading plan.
  1 comment
• Euro Trades Higher Ahead of ECB Tender Offer
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/21/2011 5:05:45 AM ET
  Risk currencies continued their advance in early Europe trade today ahead of the ECB 3 year tender offer that many in the market viewed as stealth form of QE. The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.3155 and Aussie rallied to 1.0200 before meeting some profit taking in mid- morning London trade. Most analysts expected so see LTRO bids in the range of 250-350B euros from European banks allowing them o access capital at 1% which could in turn be invested into higher yielding sovereign bonds in the region.
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