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COMMENTARY

• Euro Drops Through 1.3000 on Lackluster GE Auction
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/4/2012 6:26:28 AM ET
  Risk FX was slightly lower in mid-morning European trade after the region’s banking sector was under pressure in the wake of large rights offering by Unicredit. Unicredit issued fresh shares at 40% discount to market price and opened 8% lower, dampening investor sentiment. Meanwhile the German government was able to auction off 10 year bonds at an average yield of 1.94%. The results of the auction were better than the time prior with bid to cover ratio rising to 1.3 from 1.1 but overall it was hardly a strong vote of confidence as investors in the region remain cautious with German authorities selling only 4.057 Billion euros out of the target of 5 Billion.
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• Canadian Dollar Outlook
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/4/2012 5:03:44 AM ET
  The Canadian dollar lost value against all of the major currency pairs in 2011. Some people may find this surprising because Canada does not have the weakest economy in the world nor does it have the weakest balance sheet. In fact, of all the G20 countries, Canada is among the strongest and its balance sheet is in an enviable position.
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• GBP/CAD Short Opportunity at 1.5929
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 1/3/2012 7:55:15 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the GBP/CAD.
  2 comments
• Strong ISM Manufacturing Propels Risk FX Higher
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/3/2012 10:25:31 AM ET
  US economic data printed better than expected sending risk currencies higher at the start of North American trade on enthusiasm over the sustainability of the US recovery. US ISM Manufacturing report registered a reading of 53.9 versus 53.5 eyed and 52.9 the month prior.
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• Euro Clears 1.3000 As Global Economic Data Improves
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/3/2012 5:21:56 AM ET
  Risk FX caught a bid on the first full trading day of the new year after better than expected Manufacturing PMI numbers in Asia and strong labor data from Germany lifted investor sentiment, allaying fears of an imminent global slowdown. In China the official PMI Manufacturing data printed at 50.3 returning above the boom/bust line after dipping below it in November. In Australia the AIG PMI data was also better than expected recording a reading of 50.2 versus 47.8 the month prior.
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• Australian Dollar Outlook
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 1/3/2012 1:26:14 AM ET
  It has been a choppy year for the Australian dollar, which traded lower against some currencies and higher against others. Normally, the AUD/USD is a very trending currency pair, even in times of heightened uncertainty.
  1 comment
• 2012 Gold Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 1/2/2012 11:44:59 AM ET
  Given gold’s recent lethargy, it’s easy to forget just how well it has performed over the last twelve months. At the time of this writing (early December 2011), gold is up around 22% on the year.
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• Will EUR/GBP Resume Downtrend at 0.8447?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/30/2011 5:39:29 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the EUR/GBP.
  2 comments
• 2012 FTSE Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/30/2011 10:59:34 AM ET
  In common with other global indices, the FTSE100 began 2011 in good shape. Beginning in mid-2010, the index enjoyed a major rally on the back of expectations of a fresh stimulus program from the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, the FTSE fell sharply in early March following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
  1 comment
• 2012 Japan Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/30/2011 4:08:36 AM ET
  Perhaps the first thing to do is contrast the behavior of Japanese equities in 2011 with the stock markets of other major economies. As we approach year-end (and remember, this outlook is being written in early December 2011), the U.S. S&P 500 is effectively unchanged on the year, while the NASDAQ 100 is up 4%.The UK’s FTSE100 is about 5% lower.
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• Trading Psychology- Recency Bias
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/29/2011 8:49:32 PM ET
  What is recency bias, and how can it negatively impact your trading results?
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• Risk FX Remains Pressured in Wake of Mixed Italian Auction
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/29/2011 6:26:23 AM ET
  Currency markets were slightly lower in the wake of Italian 10 year bond auction at the next to last trading day of the year. Italy was able to auction off approximately 7 Billion euro of 10 year bonds at just below the key 7% level in mid-morning European trade today but the reaction in FX was somewhat mixed as the bid to cover ratio was 1.3 and the yield was 6.97%.
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• Japanese Yen Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/29/2011 5:37:47 AM ET
  What was the most boring job in the foreign exchange market in 2011? To be the dealer in the USD/JPY currency pair. For the past six months, the pair traced out a mind-numbingly narrow range of 200 points, interrupted only occasionally by half-hearted attempts of the BOJ to intervene in the market.
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• EUR/GBP Sell Opportunity at 0.8683
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 12/28/2011 7:56:34 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is forming on the EUR/GBP.
  1 comment
• 2012 DAX Outlook
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 12/28/2011 3:47:03 PM ET
  Like most other major global equity indices, the German DAX began 2011 in positive fashion. Equity markets were still feeling the benefits of growing investor risk appetite following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement of a second major round of quantitative easing.
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