COMMENTARY

• FOMC Minutes Kill the Dollar
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/14/2009 3:02:24 PM ET
  The dollar fell to new lows against 4 out of the 7 major currencies on the heels of the FOMC minutes which revealed a surprising division within the Fed. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the markets false hope.
  2 comments
• USD/JPY Short-Term Buy In Progress...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/14/2009 1:45:12 PM ET
  The USD/JPY is currently testing 78.6% intraday support, and according to GFT's timing/trend leading indicator, Foresight-A.I. ™, the pair is forecast to resume an intraday uptrend for the remainder of the NY session...
  2 comments
• Dollar Rallies on Stronger U.S. Retail Sales
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/14/2009 8:58:44 AM ET
  Stronger than expected consumer spending in the month of September helped to lift the dollar against all of the major currencies. Overall retail sales fell 1.5 percent last month, the sharpest decline since December 2008.
  2 comments
• EUR/USD Hits 1.4900 - Can US Retail Sales Turn The Trend?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/14/2009 5:32:34 AM ET
  The dollar was hammered once again in overnight trade as the combination of positive risk flows, reserve diversification talk and dovish comments by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn all conspired to push EUR/USD and AUD/USD to fresh yearly highs at 1.4900 and 91.50 respectively. Mr. Kohn stated that he did not believe a V shaped recovery was in the cards and that inflation will be subdued for some time.
  10 comments
• Has Kohn Doomed the Dollar To Fresh Lows?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/14/2009 4:14:29 AM ET
  "I don't think a V-shaped recovery is the most likely outcome this time around," said Vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Donald Kohn in a speech to National Association for Business Economics last night, thus dooming the dollar to another round of selling as EUR/USD hit 1.49000 in overnight trade while AUD/USD reached a fresh new year high of 91.50.
  0 comments
• EUR/USD Short Term Buy at 1.4783
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/13/2009 7:37:54 PM ET
  A short term bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the EUR/USD.
  8 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Calm Before The Storm
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/13/2009 5:35:18 PM ET
  It has been a quiet day in the financial markets with U.S. equities oscillating in and out of positive territory. The dollar traded slightly lower against the euro and British pound but strengthened against the commodity currencies. Initially the greenback fell to a fresh 13 month low against the euro, Australian and Canadian dollars but profit taking on short dollar positions took the dollar off its lows. The lack of volatility in the currency market over the past two trading days may have been a relief after last week’s price action but that will probably come to an end tomorrow as the action is expected to heat up with U.S. retail sales and the FOMC minutes due for release.
  4 comments
• Critical CHF/JPY Resistance near 88.50, Potenial Sell
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/13/2009 2:46:37 PM ET
  An emerging bearish Gartley pattern along with an intertwined bearish butterfly pattern both projected to complete near 88.50...
  7 comments
• Euro Takes Out Pre Lehman Highs
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/13/2009 9:38:36 AM ET
  Based upon the latest price action in the currency market, it almost appears as if traders cannot stop selling dollars. Lack of demand for dollars has driven the euro, Australian, and New Zealand dollars to 13 month highs, taking out levels last seen during Lehman’s bankruptcy.
  1 comment
• Trouble in Commdollar Paradise?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/13/2009 5:54:37 AM ET
  A very quiet rangebound night in the currency market with most of the majors holding around their NY closing levels as eco data both in Europe and UK offered little fresh news to the market. The one exception to tonight’s lackluster trade was the New Zealand dollar which popped to .7400 on the back of much stronger than expected Retail Sales which printed at 1.2% versus 0.5% eyed. New Zealand, much like Australia has benefited mightily from Asian demand for commodities and currency traders speculated that it may be the next advanced industrialized nation to raise its overnight rates, possibly before the end of this year.
  9 comments
• Pound Punished as Pricing Power Nil
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 10/13/2009 5:01:45 AM ET
  UK CPI data printed cooler than expected in the month of September coming in at 1.1% versus 1.3% eyed. The Retail Price index came in at -1.4% versus -1.5% projected. The inflation gauges slumped to a 7 year low as utility bills, food costs and hotel and restaurant prices all declined.
  0 comments
• NZD/USD Long Opportunity at 0.7161
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 10/12/2009 9:31:38 PM ET
  A bullish Gartley pattern is forming on the NZD/USD.
  6 comments
• U.S. Dollar: The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/12/2009 5:11:55 PM ET
  As the U.S. dollar continues to fall to significant lows, more coverage of the dollar’s weakness is expected. However the fact that the reporting has been mostly one sided in the sense that most analysts believe the dollar should continue to weaken (ourselves included) is certainly worrisome. On Friday, we talked about how positioning in the greenback has reached extreme levels against the euro which only furthers the case for a near term dollar rally. Yet the price action in the currency market on this quiet trading day indicates that Newton’s Law remains very much in play – which is that “Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.” In other words, until the dollar has a good reason to stop falling, it probably won’t. The dollar traded lower against every major currency today except for the British pound and the Japanese Yen.
  6 comments
• Trade Update: NZD/CAD Stops to .7625
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 10/12/2009 3:36:44 PM ET
  We've decided to tighten stops to .7625, which effectively locks in 168 pips of profit (doubling the amount of initial risk) and still leaves a little room for the possibility of another bearish break-out....
  0 comments
• How Undervalued is the U.S. Dollar?
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 10/12/2009 9:49:09 AM ET
  Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar has weakened dramatically. Not only has it become the whipping boy of the financial markets but there is a good chance that it could be headed lower.
  14 comments