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COMMENTARY

• Precious metals ease after Friday's sharp rally
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/8/2013 11:54:47 AM ET
  Precious metals have eased back a touch after Friday’s sharp rally. Sentiment remains downbeat due to the on-going outflows from gold ETFs and as speculators continue to trim their long positions as they look for better yields elsewhere. But with the equity market rally showing a few signs of fatigue, and central banks’ risky stimulus experiment still ongoing or gathering pace in the case of Japan, gold and silver could shine once again...
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• All Aboard – Next Stop, USD/JPY 100.00!
  Written by Matthew Weller
  Last updated 4/5/2013 1:40:15 PM ET
  With many analysts calling for 100.00 sooner rather than later, there may be a chance to enter a swing buy trade on USD/JPY later today or early next week, with a target up near the 100.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to consider a buy entry near current market rates, but we would prefer to see the dip toward 96.00 before buying to improve the risk/reward ratio on a trade.
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• Precious metals in strong demand after the NFP miss
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/5/2013 1:33:14 PM ET
  Gold and silver posted rare gains today, benefitting from a “risk-off” trade following the release of a very bad nonfarm payrolls figure. Only 88,000 net jobs were added into the US economy in March compared to an upwardly revised 268,000 a month earlier. Needless to say, it easily missed expectations...
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• NFP hammers final nail in coffin for crude oil
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/5/2013 12:18:55 PM ET
  Crude oil has had a terrible start to the month of April. After falling heavily over the last few days, some thought prices were due for a bounce of some sort today. Expectations for the nonfarm payrolls number had already been scaled down and traders were looking for any positive...
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• Has the stock market topped?
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/5/2013 7:34:00 AM ET
  As we await the NFP number, European markets have plunged and US stock indices look wobbly too ahead of the open on Wall Street.
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• The Dual Nature of Mario Draghi
  Written by Neal Gilbert
  Last updated 4/4/2013 4:31:30 PM ET
  North American markets were extremely exciting today thanks to a couple of monetary policy decisions that only had very slight relevance to the US markets, however, they had outsized implications in equity, commodity, and currency markets throughout the day and their reverberations are likely to be felt for weeks, months, and perhaps years. Both the S&P and Dow closed the day up about 0.4% while Gold and Oil had much less impressive days. The big movers of the day appeared in currencies where the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank dictated price action and either bolstered or foiled best laid plans.
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• Gold: fake breakout or bull trap?
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/4/2013 2:22:37 PM ET
  Both gold and silver extended their falls this morning, despite equities also declining. Confidence remains ultra-low among bullion investors at the moment with ETF outflows showing no signs of stopping despite evidence central banks are buying gold in the physical form. However the selling pressure waned in the afternoon ...
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• Risk/Reward Ratio Favors EUR/GBP Buy
  Written by Matthew Weller
  Last updated 4/4/2013 1:57:01 PM ET
  The EUR/GBP had a rough end to the month of March, with rates tumbling nearly 400 pips in final two weeks of Q1. Now in April though, the pair is showing signs that it has turned the page right alongside the calendar. Rates rallied from key support at the previous 2.5-month low near .8430 earlier this week, and after a brief hiccup around ECB President Draghi’s speech this morning, rates appear to be on the way higher once again.
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• Supply & demand forces weigh on oil prices
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/4/2013 12:45:11 PM ET
  Crude oil extended its losses today as the dollar rallied on massive yen selling after the Bank of Japan delivered the shock and awe message in its colossal battle to end deflation. However, by far the biggest reason behind today’s selling was concerns about rising supply of oil and faltering demand.
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• Sell Opportunity as GBP/NZD Hits Record Low
  Written by Matthew Weller
  Last updated 4/3/2013 1:48:35 PM ET
  The British Pound has been one of the worst performing major currency this year while the New Zealand Dollar is up modestly against most of its rivals, so it’s not surprising that the GBP/NZD cross is at a low level. However, most traders will be surprised how extreme the move has been; the pair is at the lowest rate available within GFT’s Dealbook360 platform and a little more research shows that the pair hasn’t traded this low since at least the early 1990s.While some would argue this low level presents a buying opportunity, I’m more inclined to join in on the established trend and look for further weakness in the pair
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• Crude oil plunge on concerns over excess supply, weak demand
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/3/2013 12:48:33 PM ET
  Crude oil was little-changed first thing this morning. Brent was hanging around its testing 200-day moving average at $110, and WTI was hovering around $96.50. Prices slowly drifted lower from these levels as concerns rose about demand following the release of some disappointing US economic pointers..
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• Precious metals on the brink but bulls remain hopeful
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/3/2013 11:41:20 AM ET
  Precious metals finally broke out of their tight ranges yesterday, leading a sharp move to the downside. The breakdown was a continuation of the move that resulted from bursting of that bubble in 2011, when both gold and silver prices crashed. Silver had spent weeks consolidating inside a 1-dollar-range between $28.30 and $29.30 as investors waited for clear direction. But as the equity market rally showed no signs of easing, and the US dollar gained strength, it made sense for investors to reallocate even more of their capital into racier stocks and reduce their exposure in gold and silver...
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• AUD/NZD Sell Working Well, Stop to Breakeven
  Written by Matthew Weller
  Last updated 4/2/2013 1:57:17 PM ET
  At this point, the AUD/NZD has moved over halfway to our profit target, so it would be prudent to adjust the stop lower to manage risk on the trade. Moving the stop to breakeven (1.2451) would be a prudent way to ahead of Australian economic data tonight (Trade Balance at 0:30 GMT) while still giving the trade room to run lower toward the next support level near 1.2350.
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• Crude falls on demand concerns
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/2/2013 12:44:24 PM ET
  Crude oil fell on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns over demand, abundant supplies and a shaky technical picture. The result of all which means Brent is on course to end a six-day winning streak, while WTI is set to close lower for a second successive session...
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• Precious metals plunge as equities extend gains
  Written by Fawad Razaqzada
  Last updated 4/2/2013 12:03:50 PM ET
  Precious metals fell sharply today as traders returned to their desks following a long Easter weekend. Gold was actually a touch firmer overnight, probably as a result of elevated tensions in the Korean peninsula. But this theory was put to bed once trading in Europe got underway. Gold was initially falling very slowly but once a cluster of stops below $1595 were tripped, the selling accelerated ferociously. Silver also fell sharply after it closed below that key $28.30 level yesterday...
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