COMMENTARY

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  What Makes Prices Move?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/6/2009 6:34:42 PM ET
  Technical factors? Fundamental factors? We will discuss why markets move and why it is important to understand the factors behind that movement.
  3 comments
• U.S. Dollar: 10.2% Unemployment - The Number Says It All
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/6/2009 6:01:39 PM ET
  As disappointing as the NFP may have been, most markets took the number in stride. The dollar showed mostly mixed weakness on the day, while strengthening against the euro and the Canadian dollar. The aussie was the biggest victor of the day rising against the dollar by 0.84%, a signal that largely confirms that the risk trade remains fairly intact. On the other hand, the loonie took the largest fall on disappointing employment numbers. Stock markets swayed in and out of positive territory on disagreements over whether today’s events warranted a rally. The bulls won out, and pushed the Dow further above the 10,000 mark.
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• Short-Term CHF/JPY Buy Emerging...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/6/2009 1:10:57 PM ET
  We have a potential short-term CHF/JPY buying opportunity at .87.74 based on an emerging 30min bullish Gartley pattern...
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• Mixed NFPs - Keep the Risk Trade Capped For Now
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/6/2009 9:03:00 AM ET
  Non Farm Payrolls for October presented a decidedly mixed picture with headline unemployment rate jumping into double digits but the job losses from payrolls dropping bellow the -200K barrier, The unemployment rate reached 10.2% - the highest level in more than 26 years, breaking the psychologically important 10% barrier. However payrolls dipped below -200K to -190K for only the second time in more than a year indicating that layoffs are beginning to plateau. Additionally average hourly earnings increased to 2.4% y/y from 2.2% eyed suggesting that wage deflation has eased.
  2 comments
• Euro, Pound Firm Ahead of NFP -Will Risk Rally?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/6/2009 5:01:42 AM ET
  A generally subdued night in the currency markets but the pre positioning ahead of the NFP report suggests that FX traders are following their equity colleagues by remaining long risk as EUR/USD tested the 1.4900 level and GBP/USD rose above 1.6600. Overall however the price action was typically lackluster in front of the marquee event of the week especially with little other econ data on the global calendar.
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• NFP Preview - How Does the Data Stack Up?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/6/2009 2:54:04 AM ET
  Today’s NFP report due at 13:30 GMT is the marquee event risk of the week in the currency market as traders try to assess the sustainability of the global recovery trade going forward. The US economy remains a laggard amongst the G-3 as job losses have continued to mount. In Eurozone for example German unemployment declined for the fourth consecutive month indicating a marked improvement in labor demand. Even in export driven Japan which has been particularly hard hit by the global recession the unemployment rate improved dramatically in October to 5.3% from a record high of 5.7% set two months prior.
  2 comments
• Update: GBP/CHF To Face Test At 1.7069.
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/5/2009 6:46:46 PM ET
  A bearish butterfly pattern is forming on the GBP/CHF.
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• ECB - No More Limitless Liquidity
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/5/2009 9:35:08 AM ET
  The EUR/USD spiked through the 1.4900 figure after ECB President Jean Claude Trichet stated that some extraordinary monetary measures will be curtailed in a orderly fashion as credit conditions in the Eurozone begin to return to normal. The slightly more hawkish stance of the ECB chief surprised the market which expected only a repeat of the same rhetoric Mr. Trichet offered for the past several months.
  2 comments
• Sterling Spikes As BoE Tempers QE - But More To Come?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/5/2009 7:28:22 AM ET
  Bank of England kept its overnight rate at 0.5% but made a Solomonic comprise vis a vis its quantitative easing policy by raising the program by an additional 25 Billion pounds versus the 50 Billion pounds expected by many analysts. The program of asset purchase now totals 200 Billion pounds and the BoE noted that the scale of the program will be “kept under review.”
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• Will Euro and Pound Diverge In Post Announcement Trade?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/5/2009 5:35:14 AM ET
  A quiet, sluggish night of trade in Asia and early Europe as currency markets awaited the BoE and ECB rate announcements and risk FX remained in a tight range ahead of those events. UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production data surprised to the upside and helped lift the pound to 1.6550 but traders remained wary of the MPC risk due at 12:00 GMT.
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• AUD/JPY Near Short Opportunity at 83.37
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 11/4/2009 7:15:47 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern has nearly completed on the AUD/JPY.
  2 comments
• U.S. Dollar: Fed Sets Up the NFP
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 11/4/2009 4:34:01 PM ET
  The Feds decision to reaffirm its interest in keeping rates exceptionally low was received well by the currency markets. The dollar was left to face the brunt of the decision, losing out against all majors except for the Japanese yen. The greenback declined the most against the euro in about two months by 1.03 percent, even as stocks posed a late-day retreat. Furthermore, the pound was a big gainer as traders seem to be finding more promise behind the ECB and BoE rate decisions for tomorrow. Each of the commodity dollars took their share from the dollar’s fall. The end of the Fed decision has set up the Non-Farm Payroll report for later this week, which will be a critical factor in keeping the risk trade afloat.
  3 comments
• TRADE UPDATE: Move To Risk-Free On AUD/CAD Short...
  Written by Roger Stojsic
  Last updated 11/4/2009 3:14:20 PM ET
  Last week's AUD/CAD short (at.9792) has been moving along nicely, and it's time now to move stops to break-even....
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• FOMC Unchanged - What's Next?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/4/2009 2:52:31 PM ET
  The Federal Reserve has kept its overnight target rate unchanged maintaining rates between 0-25 basis points and more importantly kept the key language the same as the month prior stating, “The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
  2 comments
• Does ADP Suggest That Fed Will Stay Pat?
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 11/4/2009 8:58:08 AM ET
  ADP employment report printed at -203K versus forecast of -190K suggesting that the overall NFP number on Friday could come in as high -263K jobs versus current market projections of -175K. The ADP numbers have been notoriously inaccurate understating the actual BLS statistics by more than 103K average over the past five months which indicates that the NFP numbers could be weaker than the market expects and most probably will remain above the psychologically key -200K level.
  3 comments