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COMMENTARY

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  CHF/JPY to Resume Downtrend at 83.79?
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 2/3/2012 7:22:10 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern on the CHF/JPY may provide an opportunity to go short within the recent longer term downtrend.
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• EUR: The Potential Catalysts For A Breakout
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/3/2012 5:05:28 PM ET
  Currencies and equities ended the week on a strong note thanks to the better than expected U.S. labor market report. All of the major currencies traded higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday with the exception of the Swiss Franc which came under pressure after SNB acting Chairman Jordan promised to defend the 1.20 EUR/CHF peg with “utmost determination.”
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• GBP/JPY: Intervention Off the Table (For Now), But Still Room Up to 122.00
  Written by Matthew Weller
  Last updated 2/3/2012 1:04:39 PM ET
  Wednesday’s GBP/JPY trade was primarily based on two medium-term themes: the pervasive strength in the British pound and the potential for intervention into the yen on the part of the BOJ. Unfortunately, developments over the past two days have rendered both theses moot. However, we can still look to take advantage of the near-term bullish technical picture in the GBP/JPY with shorter-term trade levels.
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• Stocks up on US payrolls
  Written by David Morrison
  Last updated 2/3/2012 11:57:22 AM ET
  Markets were quiet this morning ahead of today's non-farm payroll release. The consensus expectation is for a gain of around 150,000 which would be down on last month's better-than-expected reading of 200,000. However, there is some concern that today's data may disappoint to the downside given last week's poor fourth quarter GDP reading, and Wednesday's disappointing ADP private payroll number. Overall, US equities continue to attract buyers although volumes are low. Volatility, as measured by the VIX index continues to fall, suggesting that investors are increasingly sanguine about the outlook for stocks. This could be called complacency, given that Europe still faces a solvency crisis, although bullish investors would describe it as "climbing the wall of worry." For many, stocks look cheap when compared to US Treasuries. The US Federal Reserve may intervene again over the next few months. This, together with expectations of further stimulus from the ECB and BoE, is keeping bond yields low and boosting equities for now. Later this afternoon the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders are released, and we have earnings from Clorox.
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• Dollar Soars, Fed, BoJ and Obama All Benefit from Strong Jobs Number
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/3/2012 9:20:35 AM ET
  Everyone from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of Japan and President Obama will breathe a sigh a relief after seeing today’s jobs report. Thanks to a 243k increase in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate has fallen for the fifth consecutive month
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• UK PMI Provides A Boost to Risk FX Ahead of NFP
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/3/2012 5:31:42 AM ET
  Risk FX was mildly bid in a typically quiet pre-NFP session boosted by better than expected UK PMI numbers and slightly positive tone in European equities. With no major economic data out of the Eurozone the only report of note was the UK PMI services release which surprised to the upside printing at 56.0 versus 53.5 expected.
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• Germany - No to ECB Haircuts
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/3/2012 3:19:49 AM ET
  German economy minister Philip Reosler rejected the idea that ECB should participate directly in the write-down of Greek debt stating the “European states and their taxpayers already make a massive contribution to Greece's restructuring process though their support efforts."
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• USD: For NFP, 100K Is Magic Number
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/2/2012 5:03:06 PM ET
  There has been very little consistently in the performance of the greenback ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The USD ended the North American trading session marginally higher against the EUR, GBP, CAD and CHF, but weakened slightly against the JPY, AUD and NZD.
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• Gambler’s Fallacy: What Roulette Can Teach us about Trading
  Written by Matthew Weller
  Last updated 2/2/2012 1:41:11 PM ET
  See what an extreme streak of roulette rolls 99 years ago can teach us about trading
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• Bernanke warns on fiscal deficit
  Written by David Morrison
  Last updated 2/2/2012 12:39:54 PM ET
  US stock index futures were firmer this morning. Investors still seem anxious to jump in on the long side, and this is giving the New Year rally an extra shot in the arm. Yesterday's Manufacturing PMIs from the US, China and euro zone were pretty unexciting, and are not enough to explain to current strength of the US equity market. The ADP Employment Report was also weak, calling into question just how good tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll report may be. But this lacklustre data is market positive, when last week's FOMC statement is considered. Investors expect the US Federal Reserve to announce further stimulus as the central bank expressed its concern over the strength of the US recovery. With the ECB and Bank of England also seen as set to intervene later this month, investors view equities as relatively under-priced, at least when compared to US Treasuries. On the data front we have Challenger Job Cuts, weekly jobless claims and non-farm productivity. Major corporate earnings come from Deutsche Bank, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Sony and Unilever. Fed Chairman Bernanke is also testifying before the House Budget Committee.
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• Bernanke Comments, Non-Farm Payrolls Preview
  Written by Kathy Lien
  Last updated 2/2/2012 10:42:52 AM ET
  Non-Farm Payrolls will be released on Friday and all signs point to slower job growth. According to this morning’s jobless claims report, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits declined last week but if we average the last 4 weeks of claims and compare it to December, there has not been any major improvements in the labor market. The momentum that we saw in the labor market in December will
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• Why China Will Support The Euro
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/2/2012 6:10:30 AM ET
  EUR/USD spiked by more than 50 cents in a matter of seconds in morning European trade on comments by China’s premier Wen Jiabao that the country will consider greater involvement in EFSF and ESM stabilization funds. Mr. Wen stated that it was “urgent” for Europe resolve its debt crisis and that China supports EU’s efforts to stabilize the Euro.
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• USD/JPY At Year Lows
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/2/2012 5:40:52 AM ET
  Risk FX came under some profit taking pressure in morning European dealing with EUR/USD stalling ahead of the 1.3200 barrier as it fell to session lows of 1.3122 before stabilizing at 1.3150. With very little economic data on the docket trading was driven mostly by technical rather than fundamental factors.
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• USD/JPY Approaches 76.00 as BOJ Signals No Intervention
  Written by Boris Schlossberg
  Last updated 2/2/2012 3:46:56 AM ET
  USD/JPY continued to drift lower in Asian trade coming within a few pips of the key 76.00 level after BOJ Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said the he didn’t see the need for immediate policy action. USD/JPY has dropped more than 200 points since the uber-dovish Fed meeting last Wednesday during which the US policy makers indicated that they may keep rates low all the way to 2014. That announcement frustrated dollar bulls who had been expecting a break out in the pair on the belief that improving US economic data would temper the accommodative policy of the Fed.
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• CAD/CHF Short Opportunity at 0.9247
  Written by Bradley Gareiss
  Last updated 2/1/2012 8:15:36 PM ET
  A bearish Gartley pattern is emerging on the CAD/CHF 4hr Chart.
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